稀土供需格局改善可期，关注稀土磁材板块配置机会

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The demand for rare earth elements is expected to recover due to multiple catalysts in the fields of new energy vehicles, home appliances, and robotics. The acceleration of humanoid robot deployment opens up long-term growth space for rare earth permanent magnet materials. The domestic rare earth mining quota growth is slowing, and the import situation from Myanmar remains unstable, making it difficult for the supply side to increase. The supply-demand pattern for rare earths is expected to continue improving, with rare earth magnetic materials likely to reshape a new cycle in 2025. The investment opportunities in the rare earth magnetic materials industry chain are promising, with recommendations for leading companies in high-end rare earth permanent magnet materials such as Jinli Permanent Magnet and light rare earth leader Northern Rare Earth [4][14]. Summary by Sections - Supply and Demand Dynamics: The domestic rare earth quota growth is slowing, with the total mining control index for 2024 set at 270,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, but a decrease in growth rate by 15.5 percentage points. The total control index for rare earth smelting and separation is 254,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a decrease in growth rate by 16.6 percentage points. Since Q3 2024, the instability in Myanmar's Kachin State has increased uncertainty regarding local production and supply to China, leading to a year-on-year decline of 17.3% in imports of unnamed rare earth oxides from Myanmar, totaling 34,500 tons in 2024. The downward trend in rare earth imports continued into 2025, with a total of 16,922 tons in January-February, a year-on-year decrease of 24.1% [10][11]. - Regulatory Changes: On February 19, 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a draft management method for rare earth mining and smelting separation, which includes foreign imported rare earth ores under regulatory management. This aims to enhance control over the supply side and is expected to increase the concentration of the rare earth industry [11]. - Demand Growth: Driven by "two new" policies, the demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials is expected to grow significantly in the new energy vehicle and home appliance sectors. It is estimated that global demand for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron will reach 200,000 tons in 2025, an increase of 26,000 tons year-on-year. Specifically, the demand from the new energy vehicle and variable frequency air conditioning sectors is expected to be 93,000 tons and 18,000 tons, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 20,000 tons and 1,000 tons. High-performance neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnet materials are also key components in humanoid robots, and advancements in AI technology are likely to accelerate the mass production of humanoid robots, further driving demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials [12]. - Price Trends: The global demand for praseodymium-neodymium oxide is expected to be 107,000 tons and 116,000 tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with supply expected to be 107,000 tons and 111,000 tons. The supply-demand gap is projected to be +500 tons and -4,500 tons for those years. The supply-demand pattern for rare earths is expected to continue improving, and as the concentration of the rare earth industry increases, the bargaining power of rare earth groups in the industry chain will strengthen, supporting the upward trend in rare earth prices. As of March 12, 2025, the rare earth price index was 183.65, up 12.15% from the end of 2024 [13].