三维指标跟踪强势板块热度

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a long-term recommendation for technology and dividend sectors, indicating a style switch by the end of 2024, with a notable rise of nearly 20% in small-cap/growth stocks since early January and a 25% increase in Hong Kong tech stocks since early February [4][15]. Market Outlook Post Two Sessions - The report suggests that the market is likely to continue its upward trend following the Two Sessions, supported by positive domestic policies and favorable market expectations. If there are no significant hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, the market momentum is expected to persist [5][16]. Strong Stocks and Sector Performance - Strong stocks are defined as those with a market capitalization of over 10 billion and listed for more than two months, with the top 10% performers before the meeting categorized as strong stocks. Historical data indicates that strong stocks tend to continue their performance in years like 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2023, while years like 2012, 2014, and 2021 may see a switch [17][18][19]. Catalysts for Performance - The report identifies three key dimensions influencing stock performance: strong industrial catalysts, improved fundamental expectations for strong stocks, and the current heat level of strong stocks. The current environment shows strong industrial catalysts and slightly better-than-average fundamental expectations, but the heat level is already high, indicating potential for a switch if catalysts do not continue [20][24][25]. Historical Performance Analysis - Historical analysis shows that strong stocks with improved fundamentals have a higher probability of continued performance. The report highlights that in the current cycle, strong stocks have slightly better fundamental improvements compared to the market, but not as pronounced as in previous years [24][40][41]. Heat Level of Strong Stocks - The report notes that the current heat level of strong stocks is high, with indicators suggesting that if there are no further catalysts, a correction may occur. The heat level is assessed based on turnover rates relative to the overall market, with a significant increase observed in recent months [25][26].