2月美国通胀数据解读：服务带动通胀回落

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - Inflation in the U.S. has successfully declined, with the February CPI year-on-year growth rate falling to 2.8% and core CPI dropping to 3.1%, the lowest since May 2021 [4][6]. - Energy prices have shifted from an increase to a decrease, with the CPI energy component showing a year-on-year growth rate of -0.2% in February [8]. - There is a risk of rebound in commodity prices, as core commodity year-on-year growth remained flat at -0.1%, but furniture and clothing prices have shown an upward trend [12][22]. - Service inflation continues to ease, with core service year-on-year growth at 4.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [13][14]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have briefly increased, but concerns over potential re-inflation due to tariffs have led to a reduction in the number of expected cuts [16][20]. Summary by Sections Inflation Trends - February CPI year-on-year growth rate decreased to 2.8%, while core CPI fell to 3.1%, marking the lowest levels since May 2021 [4][6]. - The decline in inflation is attributed to easing energy prices and a continued drop in core service inflation, particularly in transportation and housing [4][6]. Energy Prices - The CPI energy component recorded a year-on-year growth rate of -0.2%, a decline of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month [8]. - Brent crude oil prices averaged $75.3 per barrel in February, influenced by the easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation [8]. Commodity Prices - Core commodity year-on-year growth was flat at -0.1%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [12]. - There is a potential for a rebound in commodity prices due to tariff expectations affecting pricing strategies among U.S. importers [12][22]. Service Inflation - Core service inflation year-on-year growth was 4.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with housing-related inflation continuing to decline [13][14]. - The easing of inflationary pressures in services is expected to persist [14]. Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of inflation data, market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts initially rose but were later tempered by concerns over tariffs potentially causing re-inflation [16][20].