Lucky Harvest(SZ:002965) Tianfeng Securities·2025-03-13 11:10Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the automotive and automotive parts industry [6]. Core Views - The company's core business in new energy structural components is stable, while its robotics segment is expected to provide new growth opportunities. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 382 million, 492 million, and 618 million yuan respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 28, 22, and 17 times for those years. The target price is set between 60.25 and 72.3 yuan, based on a 25-30 times PE valuation for 2025 [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Development and Market Position - The company has established a solid core technology system in the mold and metal structural components sector since its inception in 2004, expanding into automotive stamping molds and metal structural components in 2008. It has gradually accumulated production experience and developed new technologies in precision stamping molds, covering automotive, energy storage photovoltaic, and communication sectors [1][13]. - The company has invested in a subsidiary in Mexico to further explore overseas markets [1]. 2. New Energy Vehicle Market Potential - The demand for stamping parts is increasing due to the rising penetration of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and the trend towards automotive lightweighting. Major clients such as Geely and BYD are expected to see significant sales growth, with Geely targeting 2.71 million vehicles by 2025, a 24.5% increase from 2024, and BYD aiming for over 5 million vehicles, a 17% increase [2][48]. 3. Robotics and Smart Manufacturing - The company has established a subsidiary focused on humanoid robotics and formed a strategic partnership with the Guangdong Academy of Sciences to innovate key components for humanoid robots. This collaboration aims to leverage research capabilities in areas such as dexterous hands and digital simulation design [3][5]. 4. Financial Performance and Projections - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with projected revenues of 7.03 billion, 8.75 billion, and 10.98 billion yuan for 2024-2026, reflecting growth rates of 23.31%, 24.42%, and 25.51% respectively. The net profit is expected to grow significantly, with a notable increase of 300.38% in 2022 compared to 2021 [5][26][28]. 5. Industry Trends and Customer Base - The new energy vehicle sector is experiencing rapid growth, with NEV sales in China projected to rise from 1.21 million in 2019 to 12.87 million in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 60.55% [36]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with leading battery manufacturers, contributing to its revenue growth. It supplies battery box components to major players like CATL and BYD, which dominate the domestic market [51][52]. 6. Strategic Collaborations and Market Expansion - The company has formed partnerships with international leaders in the photovoltaic and energy storage sectors, enhancing its market position and expanding its customer base. It has secured supplier certifications from major companies, enabling mass production of various products [61][63].