2025年两会系列报告之一：政策总量篇：扩内需兴科创，稳发展惠民生

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The government work report emphasizes a "steady progress" approach while introducing innovative policies to address current economic challenges, focusing on employment, income growth, and consumption stimulation [3][17] - The fiscal policy is set to be more proactive, with a deficit rate exceeding 4% for the first time, indicating a shift towards prioritizing policy effectiveness over strict fiscal balance [4][33] - The report highlights the importance of boosting domestic demand, particularly consumption, as a primary driver of economic growth [5][55] Summary by Sections Policy Direction and Economic Outlook - The government work report maintains a "steady progress" tone while addressing the need for innovative policy measures to tackle economic challenges, including insufficient effective demand and consumer spending [3][17] - Key economic targets for 2025 include a GDP growth of around 5%, urban unemployment rate of 5.5%, and a CPI increase of approximately 2% [20][21] Fiscal Policy Enhancements - The fiscal policy will see a significant increase in spending, with a total budget of 29.7 trillion yuan, marking a 4.4% increase from the previous year [41] - The report indicates a total new government debt of 11.86 trillion yuan, representing about 8.4% of nominal GDP, which is an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [41][42] Consumer Demand and Economic Growth - The government aims to enhance consumer demand through targeted fiscal measures, including a 30% increase in special bonds aimed at consumption, particularly in the "old for new" consumption scheme [57][58] - The report emphasizes the need to improve social security systems to reduce consumer concerns and stimulate spending [56][59] Technological Innovation and Productivity - The report underscores the importance of technological innovation, with a focus on funding, talent, and policy coordination to support the development of new productive forces [6][67] - The establishment of a national venture capital fund is planned to mobilize approximately 1 trillion yuan for hard technology sectors [67]