平安证券晨会纪要-2025-03-13

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company Tubaobao (002043.SZ) [2][9] Core Viewpoints - The domestic engineered wood market has significant growth potential, supported by the demand for renovation of existing homes. Historical data from mature European markets shows a consistent increase in engineered wood production over the past sixty years [2][9] - The competitive landscape in the domestic market is fragmented, with an expected acceleration in industry concentration due to increasing consumer awareness of environmental issues and a shift in demand from the consumer (C-end) to the business (B-end) market [2][7][9] - Tubaobao has established strong brand barriers and deep connections with suppliers and distributors, ensuring stable profit margins and cash flow. The company has focused on channel transformation, significantly developing its furniture factory and rural channels, and expanding into customized home furnishing, enhancing its growth attributes [2][8][9] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tubaobao is a leading enterprise in the domestic eco-friendly furniture board industry, with a business scope that includes decorative materials and customized home furnishing. The company has maintained a strong profitability with an average net profit margin of 7% and ROE of 19% over the past decade [6][9] Market Potential - The domestic engineered wood market exceeds 700 billion, including plywood, fiberboard, and particleboard, with end-user demand from furniture manufacturing and building decoration. Despite recent pressures from the real estate downturn, future renovation demand is expected to be substantial [7][9] Channel Transformation - The company has capitalized on consumer concerns regarding formaldehyde in wood products, achieving brand recognition and premium pricing through effective marketing. The share of furniture factory channel business has increased from single digits in 2018 to 36.8% in the first three quarters of 2024, with a significant expansion in rural channels [8][9] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for Tubaobao from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 590 million, 750 million, and 880 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.7x, 12.4x, and 10.5x [2][9]