TRANSFAR ZHILIAN(SZ:002010) Minsheng Securities·2025-03-19 11:10Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is leveraging its investment in Ant Group to combine manufacturing and finance, enhancing its logistics and chemical business operations [1][15]. - The company is transitioning from a subsidy-driven profit model to one focused on core business operations, with a significant reduction in the proportion of other income from government subsidies [2][18]. - The logistics business is expanding its urban logistics hub strategy, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and increasing revenue from existing assets [20][22]. - The chemical business is positioned as a market leader in specialized segments, with a strong technological edge and a solid growth trajectory [33][34]. Summary by Sections Logistics and Chemical Business Overview - The company operates primarily in logistics and chemicals, with logistics centered around smart highway port services and supply chain logistics [9]. - The company has invested in Ant Group, becoming the fifth-largest shareholder, and is collaborating on various strategic initiatives [1][15]. Logistics Business - As of H1 2024, the company has established 73 highway port projects across China, covering an operational area of 6.02 million square meters [20]. - The revenue from the highway port business has remained stable, with a significant increase in gross margin from 41.5% in 2018 to 78.8% in H1 2024 [2][22]. - The company is focusing on enhancing the efficiency of existing assets and reducing capital expenditures, which decreased by 22.1% year-on-year in H1 2024 [2][22]. Chemical Business - The company is a leading player in textile chemicals and synthetic rubber, with a market share of over 70% in rare earth polybutadiene rubber [33][48]. - The chemical business has shown steady revenue growth, with a CAGR of 13.7% from 2020 to 2023 [33]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, maintaining an annual investment of 300 to 430 million yuan, resulting in over 280 proprietary technologies [39]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 27.61 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected net profit of 150 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline due to asset disposal losses [50][53]. - The report forecasts a recovery in revenue growth for both logistics and chemical segments in the coming years, with expected revenues of 31.91 billion yuan and 35.75 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively [53]. - The company is anticipated to maintain a competitive edge due to its established logistics infrastructure and leadership in the chemical sector, justifying the "Buy" rating [58][59].