宏观点评：从2月社融，看降息降准前景-2025-03-17

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift towards "moderate easing" in monetary policy, suggesting that interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions are likely to occur, with a higher probability of a reserve requirement cut in the short term [3][10]. Core Insights - In February 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 1.01 trillion, significantly lower than the expected 1.24 trillion and the previous month's 5.13 trillion, indicating a substantial month-on-month decline [1][7]. - New social financing (社融) totaled 2.23 trillion, which was below expectations but showed a year-on-year increase of 737.4 billion, primarily supported by the accelerated issuance of government bonds and special refinancing bonds [10][11]. - The overall structure of financing has deteriorated, with both household and corporate credit weakening, and M1 growth slowing down [2][9]. Summary by Sections Credit and Social Financing - New credit in February was 1.01 trillion, down 440 billion year-on-year and 4.12 trillion month-on-month, indicating a significant drop below seasonal norms [2][7]. - New social financing was 2.23 trillion, up 737.4 billion year-on-year but down 4.82 trillion month-on-month, showing a mixed performance against seasonal expectations [10][11]. Structural Analysis - Household short-term loans decreased by 2.74 trillion, reflecting weak consumption, while medium to long-term loans fell by 1.15 trillion, diverging from real estate sales data [8][9]. - Corporate medium to long-term loans saw a significant decline, attributed to overshooting demand from previous months and slow issuance of special bonds [9][10]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The report emphasizes that monetary easing remains the overarching direction for 2025, with potential reserve requirement cuts expected within the next 1-2 months [3][10]. - Key indicators to monitor include government bond issuance, the pace of fiscal stimulus, and the actual performance of real estate sales [3][10].