中科三环（000970）：24年量价齐跌，期待25年景气向上

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.751 billion RMB in 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 19.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.01 million RMB, down 95.64% year-over-year. The fourth quarter revenue was 1.769 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year decline of 8.86% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.52% [1][2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a significant drop in both volume and price, alongside asset impairment provisions. However, there is an expectation for a recovery in the rare earth magnetic materials industry in 2025, which supports the "Buy" rating [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company produced and sold 10,636.85 tons and 10,088.44 tons of magnetic materials, respectively, representing year-over-year decreases of 6.97% and 10.91%. The sales revenue from magnetic materials fell by 20.74%, with a gross margin decline to 10.69%, down 2.02 percentage points year-over-year. The company recognized an asset impairment loss of 140 million RMB due to falling rare earth prices, impacting overall performance [2][3]. Industry Outlook - The rare earth industry is anticipated to reach a turning point in 2025, with potential recovery in the rare earth magnetic materials supply chain. The company has a production capacity of 25,000 tons for sintered NdFeB and 1,500 tons for bonded NdFeB. If market conditions improve, the company is positioned for rapid capacity expansion [3][4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 0.19 RMB, 0.33 RMB, and 0.49 RMB, respectively. The price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2025 is set at 2.68, with a target price of 14.72 RMB, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 12.92 RMB due to improved comparable valuation levels [4][7].