Dongxing Securities·2025-03-14 12:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "positive" investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [5]. Core Insights - In February 2025, the average price of live pigs decreased due to oversupply, while the price of piglets remained strong. The average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 36.21 CNY/kg, 16.00 CNY/kg, and 27.46 CNY/kg respectively, with month-on-month changes of 6.59%, -3.68%, and -1.57% [11][16]. - The supply side is seeing a gradual recovery in post-holiday pig sales, leading to an overall sufficient market supply. However, demand has been slow to recover, with a slaughtering rate of 20.24% in February [13][19]. - The report anticipates that the pig prices in the coming months will rely on the entry of secondary fattening [13][21]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Performance - February saw a slight price adjustment in live pigs and pork due to a post-holiday consumption decline, while piglet prices showed resilience [11][16]. - The supply of pigs is expected to increase in March, putting pressure on the supply side [13][19]. Cost and Price Trends - The report highlights that the imposition of tariffs on certain imported agricultural products may lead to increased breeding costs, with expectations of a rise in costs for 2025 [16][19]. - The average sales prices for major pig farming companies in February showed a decline, with specific figures for companies like Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope [24][25]. Future Market Outlook - The report predicts that high-quality production capacity will maintain profitability in 2025, with leading companies expected to benefit from valuation recovery as consumption policies are implemented [21][33]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with cost advantages and high performance, such as Muyuan, Wens, and Tian Kang Biological [21][34].