太平洋证券-策略日报-2025-03-14

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The bond market shows a divergence in yields, with short-term rates declining and long-term rates rising. The market has fully priced in interest rate cuts, and the 10-year government bond has stabilized after hitting a technical support level [24][31]. - The stock market opened with fluctuations and ended with a slight recovery, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks. The technology sector's long-term bull market is not over, but short-term trading is crowded, leading to potential volatility [39][44]. - In the U.S. stock market, the three major indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq rising by 1.22%. The market is expected to continue its monthly-level adjustment, and investors should wait for long-term buying opportunities [44]. Group 2: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.2427, down 18 basis points from the previous close. The market is betting on a "revival theory" in Europe, leading to a significant depreciation of the USD index [52]. - The CNY/USD has strong support around 7.1, and it is expected to remain stable between 7.1 and 7.4 in the short term. However, the RMB may face depreciation pressure due to ongoing trade war expectations [52]. Group 3: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index rose slightly by 0.21%, with coal and oilseed sectors leading the gains, while corn and ferroalloy sectors lagged. The index is expected to face downward risks after a short-term consolidation [59][60]. Group 4: Important Policies and News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a directory of new energy vehicle models eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemptions, including models from Xiaomi [67]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is improving systems for refinancing, mergers and acquisitions, and stock incentives tailored to technology companies [67]. - The People's Bank of China emphasized the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the potential for rate cuts to support key sectors and strategic areas [68].