MENGNIU DAIRY(02319) 群益证券·2025-03-17 01:02Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on expected improvements in demand and favorable policies [6][7]. Core Insights - The company forecasts a net profit for 2024 between RMB 0.5 billion and RMB 2.5 billion, a significant decrease from RMB 4.8 billion in the previous year [7]. - The report highlights a projected decline in revenue for 2024 due to weak demand, with liquid milk revenue expected to drop approximately 13% year-on-year in the first half [7]. - Despite the anticipated revenue decline, the company expects an improvement in gross margin and operating profit margin due to lower raw milk prices and efficiency measures [7]. - A substantial impairment loss is expected to impact the overall profit, primarily due to losses from the subsidiary Bellamy and the joint venture Modern Dairy, with total impairment losses estimated between RMB 3.8 billion and RMB 4 billion [7]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in dairy product demand in 2025, supported by potential local subsidy policies aimed at increasing birth rates, which could positively affect the company's milk powder business [7]. - The company expects net profits of RMB 1.2 billion, RMB 4.4 billion, and RMB 5.07 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with significant growth projected for 2025 [7][9]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is projected to decline from RMB 98.6 billion in 2023 to RMB 85.9 billion in 2024, before recovering to RMB 92.5 billion in 2025 and RMB 98.4 billion in 2026 [9]. - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 0.12 billion, a sharp decline from RMB 4.8 billion in 2023, followed by a rebound to RMB 4.4 billion in 2025 and RMB 5.07 billion in 2026 [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to drop to RMB 0.03 in 2024, with a significant recovery to RMB 1.12 in 2025 and RMB 1.30 in 2026 [9]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 542 in 2024, decreasing to 15 in 2025 and 13 in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [9].