ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-03-16 14:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [4]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is currently experiencing a favorable performance, reinforcing the view that "steady growth is better than extreme fluctuations." The focus should be on leading companies in the industry [1][4]. - In the medium to long term, the report emphasizes the importance of strong brand power, early inventory clearance, and reasonable growth targets for leading liquor companies, particularly in the baijiu segment. It also highlights the high prosperity and cost cycle as key themes for consumer goods, alongside potential investment opportunities arising from retail transformations in 2025 [1][2]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Sector - The baijiu sector is currently in a "high-low cut" phase, with ongoing recommendations for companies that have strong fundamentals, high certainty in Q1 performance, and relatively low valuations. The report anticipates a structural bull market for baijiu driven by policy catalysts and improving real estate data [3][4][12]. - Key recommendations include high-end brands like Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai, as well as mid-range and regional brands such as Gujing Gongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu [12]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is advised to focus on high prosperity and cost cycles, with leading companies prioritized. Recommended stocks include Qingdao Beer, Yili, and Eastroc Beverage, among others [2][18]. - The report notes significant price increases in frozen foods (+8.18%), other alcoholic beverages (+8.04%), and dairy products (+7.35%) during the recent trading period [2][23]. Market Performance - From March 7 to March 14, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 1.59%, with notable increases in the baijiu sector, which saw an overall rise of 6.67% [3][23]. - Specific baijiu brands such as Zhenjiu Lidu (+14.71%) and Jiugui Liquor (+10.48%) led the gains, while the consumer goods sector also showed strong performance with companies like Panda Dairy (+18.72%) and Pinwa Foods (+16.21%) [2][23][27]. Price Trends - The report tracks stable pricing for key baijiu products, with the average price for Feitian Moutai at approximately 2,215 yuan and Wuliangye at around 950 yuan [11][41]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights ongoing policy support aimed at boosting consumption, including the issuance of consumption vouchers and subsidies for child-rearing, which are expected to positively impact the food and beverage sector [6][14].