2025年Q2宏观形势展望：中美缓和窗口期风险偏好助力科技牛

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the technology sector, suggesting a "bull market" driven by improved risk appetite due to potential easing in US-China relations [1][8]. Core Insights - The core insight of the report emphasizes that the performance of major asset classes in Q2 will largely depend on risk appetite, with a particular focus on the equity market benefiting from improved US-China dialogue [1][8]. - The report anticipates a slight economic slowdown in Q2, with GDP growth expected to decrease to approximately 4.9% from 5.1% in Q1, primarily due to weaker internal dynamics in the private sector [2][12]. - The report highlights that broad infrastructure and manufacturing investments are expected to remain resilient, contributing to economic recovery [2][21]. Summary by Sections Economic Overview - Q2 GDP growth is projected to slow to 4.9%, influenced by a recovery in both supply and demand driven by counter-cyclical policies [2][12]. - Retail sales growth is expected to reach 5.5% in Q2, supported by low base effects and policy stimulus [18][19]. Monetary Policy - The report suggests a potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in Q2, while interest rate cuts remain uncertain due to external pressures [3][4]. Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a proactive stance, with an increase in government bond issuance and a focus on special bonds for land reserves [4][46]. Industry Policy - The report indicates a push for innovation and energy consumption control, with a focus on supporting new industries such as quantum technology and AI [4][26]. US Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to stabilize in Q2, with the report attributing recent economic slowdowns to uncertainties in fiscal policy and trade tariffs [5][7]. Major Asset Classes - The report predicts that the stock market will maintain a high-risk appetite leading up to potential meetings between US and Chinese leaders, with technology stocks expected to perform well [1][8].