转债周策略：二季度转债投资的三个热点问题

Group 1 - The core investment focus for convertible bonds in the second quarter is likely to remain on technology growth sectors, supported by a "slow recovery" trend in the economy. Specific sectors such as metals, chemicals, and consumer electronics may perform well due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and policy subsidies, but a full recovery in cyclical sectors may still depend on improved demand [2][10] - The valuation of convertible bonds may experience slight compression, but the decline in value is expected to be limited. The first quarter saw valuations rise to historical highs, and as the market approaches a period of intensive earnings disclosures, investor risk appetite may decrease, leading to increased market volatility [3][11] - The likelihood of credit risk spillover in the convertible bond market is expected to significantly decrease compared to the same period in 2024. As of March 14, 2025, the number of debt-type convertible bonds is only 92, accounting for 19% of the total market, compared to 189 and 35% in April 2024 [4][12] Group 2 - Recent stock market performance has been strong, attributed to factors such as relatively loose liquidity expectations, anticipated consumer support policies, and resilient inflows into the Hong Kong market, which provide emotional support for the A-share market. The recent rise in cyclical sectors may have absorbed some profits from technology growth sectors, maintaining market sentiment [5][19] - Despite a recent decline in convertible bond valuations, the long-term outlook remains positive, with strong allocation value. The decline is primarily due to short-term capital withdrawal driven by risk aversion ahead of earnings disclosures and concerns over potential credit risk spillover [5][20] - Specific investment opportunities include the consumer electronics sector benefiting from AI-driven demand, domestic large model upgrades driving cloud service demand, and the domestic intelligent driving industry expected to accelerate in 2025. Additionally, cyclical sectors may see performance recovery, and the renewable energy sector is also showing signs of improvement [5][20]