qscc(600425) 天风证券·2025-03-15 15:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 4.83 CNY, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][4]. Core Viewpoints - The company's revenue for the year 2024 is reported at 4.33 billion CNY, a decrease of 3.60% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 354 million CNY, down 23.68% year-on-year [1][4]. - The cement business showed stable volume and price, while the chemical segment continued to be a drag on overall performance. The company is awaiting the ramp-up of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project in the second half of the year [2][4]. - The company has optimized expenses, resulting in a net profit margin of 8.32%, down 2.64 percentage points year-on-year, and an overall gross margin of 23.54%, down 1.25 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 4.33 billion CNY and a net profit of 354 million CNY, with a significant decline in net profit margin and gross margin compared to the previous year [1][3]. - The cement business generated 3.31 billion CNY in revenue, with a slight increase in sales volume by 0.5% to 8.21 million tons, while the average price per ton decreased by 2.2 CNY to 403 CNY/ton [2][4]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The cost per ton of cement increased by 9.7 CNY to 277 CNY/ton, leading to a gross profit per ton of 126 CNY, down 11.9 CNY year-on-year, and a gross margin of 31.2%, down 2.76 percentage points [2][3]. - The chemical segment's revenue decreased by 3.3% to 810 million CNY, with significant declines in PVC and urea sales volumes [2][4]. Future Outlook - The commencement of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project is expected to boost demand by approximately 6-8 percentage points annually, supporting the company's cement business profitability [4][6]. - The company plans to adjust its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 430 million CNY and 586 million CNY, respectively, reflecting the anticipated challenges in the cement industry and ongoing losses in the chemical segment [4][6].