Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The central bank has maintained a net withdrawal of funds, resulting in a stable liquidity environment. From March 10 to 14, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 191.7 billion yuan, with the reverse repurchase balance decreasing to 526.2 billion yuan. Despite this, funding rates remained stable, with R001 fluctuating between 1.77% and 1.81% and R007 showing minimal weekly fluctuation [1][10][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Central Bank Operations - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations have been reduced, leading to a stable liquidity situation. The average daily net lending from the banking system decreased to 1.85 trillion yuan, down from 2.26 trillion yuan the previous week. The decline was primarily due to the performance of joint-stock banks, while large state-owned banks continued to increase their lending [1][10][13]. 2. Future Outlook - Looking ahead to March 17-21, despite the tax period, liquidity is expected to remain stable due to the central bank's supportive stance. Historical data indicates that the impact of the tax period on liquidity is generally moderate in March [2][10]. 3. Open Market Operations - For the week of March 17-21, over 1 trillion yuan in government bonds is set to mature, with a total of 10,332 billion yuan in maturities expected. The central bank's reverse repurchase operations will also see significant maturities during this period [3][30][31]. 4. Bill Market - The 1-month bill rate has decreased to 1.48%, while the 3-month and 6-month rates have increased slightly. Large banks have continued to purchase bills, with a net purchase of 30.6 billion yuan during the week of March 10-14 [4][34][35]. 5. Government Bonds - The net payment for government bonds from March 17-21 is projected to be 109.1 billion yuan, significantly lower than the previous week's 260.9 billion yuan. The planned issuance for this period is 324.07 billion yuan [5][38][39]. 6. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The total maturity pressure remains high, with 7,337 billion yuan in certificates of deposit maturing during the week of March 10-14. The weighted average issuance rate for these deposits has slightly increased to 2.05% [6][42][50].
流动性跟踪:资金面,平稳
HUAXI Securities·2025-03-15 14:35