定量策略周观点总第154周：或有一到两周的“东西共振”-2025-03-17

Group 1 - The core viewpoint suggests a long-term shift from the US to non-US markets, with a potential capital inflow of approximately $230 billion into Chinese equities [1] - Short-term movements indicate that risk-averse funds are flowing into European stocks, Hong Kong stocks, gold, and US Treasury bonds, suggesting a possible "East-West resonance" in the coming weeks [1][2] - The report recommends a moderate position in US stocks, with specific attention to the upcoming interest rate meeting and potential impacts from political events [1][28] Group 2 - The A-share market maintains a full position signal, driven by optimistic market sentiment despite policy outcomes not exceeding expectations [2][35] - The Hong Kong market shows a bullish outlook, particularly in the technology sector, with a focus on domestic demand and dividend opportunities [2][37] - The report highlights a shift in investment strategies, with an emphasis on industry rotation and a potential increase in the allocation of these strategies in the first half of 2025 [28][39] Group 3 - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including industrial manufacturing, essential consumer goods, materials, and real estate, with active themes in AI applications and semiconductor industries [5][28] - The gold market is expected to see short-term profit-taking, but the long-term upward trend remains intact, driven by geopolitical tensions and currency fluctuations [43][46] - The ETF strategy has shown strong performance, with a year-to-date absolute return of 29.87%, outperforming major indices [46]