事件点评：信贷弱并非降息的充分条件

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious stance on the industry, suggesting that weak credit is not a sufficient condition for interest rate cuts by the central bank [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that monetary easing is ongoing, with a focus on the downward space for the reserve requirement ratio. A reduction in the reserve requirement will mark the beginning of a new round of easing, but the timing may be delayed due to external uncertainties, particularly related to the U.S. economy and trade policies [1][26]. - The report highlights that the growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.2% in February 2025, with new social financing amounting to 2.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 737.4 billion yuan [5][7]. - It notes that the new credit in February was 1.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 440 billion yuan, primarily due to weak corporate loans [10][11]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In February 2025, the stock growth rate of social financing rose to 8.2% from 8.0%, with new social financing of 2.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 737.4 billion yuan year-on-year. Government bonds increased by 1.69 trillion yuan, with local bonds net financing at 1.27 trillion yuan, over 70% of which was directed towards debt repayment [5][7]. Credit - New credit in February was 1.01 trillion yuan, down 440 billion yuan year-on-year, with corporate loans being the main drag. The report indicates that the delayed start of the construction season has led to weak corporate loan demand [10][11]. Monetary Aspects - The M2 growth rate remained at 7.0%, while M1 growth fell to 0.1%. The report attributes the increase in non-bank deposits to the stock market performance, with total deposits growing significantly [19][25]. Ongoing Monetary Easing - The report discusses the continuous reversal of monetary easing, with a focus on the downward space for the reserve requirement ratio. The timing for potential interest rate cuts may be postponed due to external uncertainties, particularly regarding the U.S. economy [1][26].