产业经济周观点：关注情绪与基本面的分歧-2025-03-17

Group 1 - The report highlights that the restructuring of the global landscape in the AI era is expected to propel China into the ranks of high-income countries, driving long-term expansion in high-quality consumption and service industries [2][3] - China's globally competitive output system is anticipated to lead the current technological revolution and foster domestic consumption prosperity over the long term [3][4] - The structural reversal of high inflation in the US service sector and low inflation in goods, combined with economic recovery in Europe and China, is likely to usher in a prolonged upward cycle for global manufacturing [3][4] Group 2 - The report indicates a high market sentiment of "East Rising, West Falling," emphasizing the need to focus on the realization of fundamentals [4][43] - Short-term growth industries continue to show high-low cuts, with military industry being a focus, while mid-term preferences lean towards cyclical dividend assets, particularly in electrolytic aluminum, high-quality consumption, and service consumption [4][43] - Long-term prospects are favorable for the AI application industry chain and related Chinese advantages, including scarce manufacturing capabilities, with a positive outlook on Hong Kong stocks, central state-owned enterprises, leading advanced semiconductor firms, traditional manufacturing leaders, the Belt and Road Initiative, and military industry [4][43] Group 3 - The report notes that the US inflation structure may benefit the recovery of global manufacturing, with February's US CPI inflation unexpectedly falling to 2.8% year-on-year, compared to an expected 2.9% [9] - The report also mentions that the Hong Kong stock market saw a decline, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping by 2.59% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index falling by 0.4% [14] - In the A-share market, the report indicates a divergence in performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.39% while the Sci-Tech 50 Index fell by 1.76% [20]