Milkground(600882) 方正证券·2025-03-17 04:50Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The demand for dairy products is expected to improve, supported by government initiatives such as the introduction of childcare subsidies, which are likely to stimulate consumption of infant formula and children's cheese products [5] - The company's stock option incentive plan and employee stock ownership plan are set to enhance profitability significantly in 2025, with ambitious revenue and profit targets [6][8] - The merger with Mengniu Cheese is anticipated to strengthen the company's market position, with a focus on increasing the share of domestically produced cheese [10] Historical Performance - The company's stock has shown a historical performance with fluctuations, including a notable decline of 16% [2] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 48.51 billion, 56.07 billion, and 65.07 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.81%, 15.58%, and 16.05% [11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.04 billion, 2.30 billion, and 3.68 billion RMB for the same years, reflecting significant growth rates of 64.18%, 120.80%, and 59.94% [11] - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate of approximately 60% for net profit from 2024 to 2027 [8] Incentive Plans - The stock option plan involves granting 8 million options, covering 1.56% of the total share capital, with a strike price of 15.83 RMB per share [6] - The employee stock ownership plan aims to hold up to 8 million shares, with a purchase price of 9.9 RMB per share, sourced from previously repurchased shares [6] Market Position - The company holds a market share of over 35% in cheese sales and over 40% in cheese stick sales, indicating a strong competitive position in the industry [10] - The report highlights the potential for growth in cheese consumption in China, given the current low per capita consumption [10]