样本城市周度高频数据全追踪：新房和二手房成交量信心指数均边际下降-2025-03-16

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The confidence index for both new and second-hand housing transaction volumes has marginally declined as of March 9, 2025 [5][36] - The overall market sentiment index for 50 cities has shown a year-on-year increase, but the growth rate has narrowed [5][37] - The liquidity outlook indicates a tightening in macro-level liquidity as of March 2025 [5][33] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in new housing transaction area has narrowed, with a 1% decrease compared to the previous month [4] - The new housing transaction area in first-tier cities has increased by 8%, while second-tier cities have seen a 3% increase [4] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transaction area has expanded by 37%, with a notable 50% increase in first-tier cities [4] - The second-hand housing transaction area in second-tier cities has shown a 2% increase, while third-tier cities have experienced a significant 55% increase [4] Land Acquisition - In February 2025, land supply in 300 cities decreased by 19.7% year-on-year, while transaction area increased by 2.1% [17] - The average transaction price of land has increased by 43% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in land market dynamics [20] Inventory Analysis - The inventory of unsold land has increased marginally compared to November, while the inventory of unsold construction has decreased [23] - The turnover cycle for unsold land has increased, while the turnover cycle for unsold construction has decreased [23] Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of credit recovery and supply-demand balance in the real estate market, suggesting potential for policy support to stabilize the market [5] - The focus is on high-quality residential supply and the narrowing gap between net rental yields and mortgage rates as key variables to watch [5]