铜行业周报：国内港口铜精矿库存降至2023年6月以来新低-2025-03-16

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - Domestic port copper concentrate inventory has rapidly decreased, indicating tightening supply and a bullish outlook for copper prices [1][4]. - As of March 14, 2025, SHFE copper price is 80,500 RMB/ton, up 2.8% week-on-week, while LME copper price is 9,793 USD/ton, up 2.0% week-on-week [1][15]. - The report anticipates continued upward movement in copper prices in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 3% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory fell by 9% [2]. - As of March 14, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stands at 575,000 tons, down 5.8% week-on-week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory as of March 3, 2025, totaled 613,000 tons, a decrease of 1.6% week-on-week [2]. Supply - The TC spot price as of March 14, 2025, is -15.9 USD/pound, continuing to set historical lows [3]. - In February 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.0582 million tons, up 4.4% month-on-month and 11.4% year-on-year [3]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper is 2,330 RMB/ton, an increase of 72 RMB/ton week-on-week [2][48]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 4.6 percentage points week-on-week, reaching 77.21% [3][63]. - In January 2025, household air conditioner production decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, while sales increased by 8.7% [3][79]. - The operating rate for brass rods, primarily used in construction, was 40.4% in February 2025, down 1.3 percentage points month-on-month but up 13.7 percentage points year-on-year [3][63]. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 38% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 43% [4][29]. - As of March 14, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions reached 230,000 lots, a significant increase from the previous week [4][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Minmetals Resources [4].