铝行业周报：库存持续去化，关注旺季需求提升-2025-03-17

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1]. Core Views - The aluminum industry is experiencing a significant inventory reduction, with a focus on the upcoming peak demand season. The report suggests that the combination of inventory depletion and rising prices may lead to a favorable investment environment [12]. Summary by Sections Inventory - As of March 13, 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory stood at 862,000 tons, reflecting a decrease of 6,000 tons from the beginning of the week. The inventory reduction trend is becoming clearer, with the traditional peak demand season approaching [8][12]. Production - In February 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.34 million tons, a decrease of 357,000 tons month-on-month and a year-on-year decline of 222,000 tons. Conversely, alumina production was 6.935 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease but a year-on-year increase of 215,000 tons [55][58]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the aluminum sector include: - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. (Stock Code: 000933.SZ) with a "Buy" rating - China Hongqiao Group (Stock Code: 1378.HK) with a "Buy" rating - Tianshan Aluminum (Stock Code: 002532.SZ) with a "Buy" rating - Aluminum Corporation of China (Stock Code: 601600.SH) with a "Buy" rating - Yunnan Aluminum (Stock Code: 000807.SZ) with a "Buy" rating - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 are as follows: - Shenhuo Co., Ltd.: 2.56 CNY - China Hongqiao Group: 2.26 CNY - Tianshan Aluminum: 0.97 CNY - Aluminum Corporation of China: 0.86 CNY - Yunnan Aluminum: 1.60 CNY [5]. Price Trends - As of March 14, 2025, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,688.5 per ton, a slight decrease from the previous week. The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20,990 CNY per ton, reflecting an increase of 155 CNY week-on-week [23][24]. Demand - Demand is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the downstream processing industries. The opening rates for aluminum processing sectors are generally improving, with notable increases in demand from the new energy vehicle and battery sectors [8][12].