煤炭开采行业周报：久违大涨的背后-2025-03-17

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal sector has seen a significant rebound, with the CITIC Coal Index rising by 4.97% from March 10 to March 14, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.39 percentage points [72] - Despite facing potential second-bottom pressure, the report suggests that positive signals will emerge as prices continue to decline, with a price bottom range identified between 650 to 686 RMB/ton [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the fundamental attributes of the industry and maintaining confidence amidst short-term price fluctuations [2] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index reached 3,341.47 points, marking a 4.97% increase, making it the second-best performing sector [72] - The coal price dynamics show a contrast where leading coal companies have rebounded despite a drop in coal prices, indicating a market recognition of the price decline [1] Coal Price Trends - As of March 14, the price of North Port thermal coal was reported at 692 RMB/ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 2 RMB/ton week-on-week [7] - The report notes that the overall supply in coal-producing regions remains stable, with minor fluctuations due to maintenance and production conditions [14] Focus Areas - The report highlights that the focus for thermal coal prices is on the recovery of terminal demand and the international coal market's pricing levels [7] - For coking coal, the report indicates that prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, with a focus on terminal demand recovery [36] Investment Strategy - The report identifies key stocks in the coal sector with "Buy" ratings, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, suggesting a positive outlook for these companies [9] - The report also mentions the potential for increased coal company buybacks, particularly highlighting Pingmei Shenma's share repurchase plan [11]