PAB(SZ:000001) Huafu Securities·2025-03-16 07:59Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is "Buy" with a target of outperforming the market benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [12][56]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the pressure on asset quality has been released, and concerns regarding the bank's annual performance and dividends have been alleviated, suggesting that negative sentiment may have peaked [12]. - The bank's net profit growth for Q4 2024 decreased by 29.9%, with a significant increase in provisions amounting to approximately 17.4 billion yuan compared to Q4 2023 [3][4]. - The overall asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.06% as of the end of 2024, unchanged from Q3 [4][11]. Summary by Sections Q4 2024 Performance Review - Revenue growth for Q4 2024 was -5.3%, a narrowing decline compared to Q3, primarily due to a rapid decline in interest rates and a 123% year-on-year increase in non-interest income from bond investments [2][3]. - The net profit growth for Q4 2024 was -29.9%, with a provision of approximately 17.4 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in provisions compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The asset quality remained stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.06% and a focus on improving retail loan quality [4][11]. Full Year 2024 Performance Review - In 2024, Ping An Bank focused on optimizing its asset structure and reducing high-risk retail assets, leading to a contraction in loan scale and a significant decline in net interest margin [5][11]. - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was set at 27%, reflecting the bank's consideration of capital adequacy and reasonable dividend levels [5]. 2025 Operational Outlook - The bank is expected to see a marginal recovery in performance in 2025, with loan growth anticipated to return to normal levels as consumer demand recovers [6][11]. - The decline in net interest margin is expected to narrow significantly, with improvements in asset quality and a reduction in high-risk retail assets [11][12]. - Revenue growth projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at -5.5%, 3.7%, and 7.0%, while net profit growth is projected at 2.1%, 4.6%, and 7.8% respectively [11][12].