行业周报：产地及进口煤存减量可能，否极泰来重视煤炭配置价值-2025-03-16

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in coal prices and highlights the importance of coal allocation value amidst a possible reduction in domestic and imported coal stocks [1][3] - The coal market is currently experiencing a bottoming phase, with expectations for price stabilization and potential recovery driven by policy and fundamental changes [3][4] - The report outlines a "Coal Golden Era 2.0," suggesting that coal stocks are positioned for a resurgence due to favorable macroeconomic policies and increasing demand from various sectors [4][11] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The coal sector is viewed as a stable dividend investment due to weak domestic economic performance and favorable international monetary policies, including a rate-cutting cycle in the U.S. [4][11] - The report identifies key coal stocks that are likely to benefit from this environment, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which have strong dividend potential [4][11] Market Indicators - The report notes that the coal market has shown a weekly increase of 4.84%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.26 percentage points [9] - Key indicators such as the Qinhuangdao port price for Q5500 coal have seen slight declines, with current prices at 681 RMB/ton, down 7 RMB/ton from the previous week [17] Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of March 9, the operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is at 82%, indicating a stable supply situation [3][17] - Daily coal consumption by coastal power plants has increased to 1.937 million tons, reflecting a 0.89% week-on-week rise, supported by extended heating periods in certain regions [3][17] Price Mechanisms - The report discusses the impact of long-term contract pricing mechanisms, which have been effective since 2017, and how they contribute to price stability in the coal market [3][4] - The report also highlights the relationship between coal and oil prices, indicating that current oil prices provide a cost advantage for coal chemical production [4][11] Stock Recommendations - The report suggests a selection of coal stocks based on different investment themes: dividend logic (China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, China Coal Energy), cyclical logic (Pingmei Shenma, Huabei Mining), and growth logic (Guanghui Energy, Xinjie Energy) [4][11]