量化择时周报：上行趋势仍在延续，科技有望再回主线-2025-03-16

• The report discusses a market timing system that uses the distance between the long-term moving average (120-day) and the short-term moving average (20-day) of the Wind All A Index to determine market trends. The short-term moving average is currently above the long-term moving average, indicating an upward trend[2][9][14] - The core observation indicator for the market trend is the "profit-making effect." As long as this effect remains positive, the market is expected to continue its upward trend. The current profit-making effect is 2.12%, which is positive[2][9][14] - The industry allocation model recommends sectors with potential for turnaround, such as the Hong Kong Stock Connect internet and battery-related industries. The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on themes like computing power, consumer electronics, and domestic substitution[2][9][14] - The valuation indicators show that the overall PE of the Wind All A Index is around the 60th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB is around the 20th percentile, indicating a relatively low level[3][10] - The position management model suggests that absolute return products with the Wind All A Index as the main stock allocation should have a position of 90%[3][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of the 20-day moving average as a key indicator. As long as the index does not fall below this moving average, a positive stance should be maintained[2][9][14] - The report also highlights the performance of different market segments and sectors, noting that small-cap stocks represented by the CSI 2000 rose by 1.34%, mid-cap stocks represented by the CSI 500 rose by 1.43%, and large-cap stocks represented by the SSE 50 rose by 2.18%[1][8] - The report mentions that the food and beverage sector performed strongly, rising by 6.24%, while the computer sector fell by 1.2%[1][8]