平安银行（000001）：信贷结构优化提速，风险处置扰动业绩

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Bank [1] Core Views - The bank's 2024 revenue decreased by 10.9% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 44.5 billion yuan, down 4.2% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant decline in profit due to increased provisioning [4][6] - The bank's strategy focuses on optimizing its credit structure, with a notable reduction in high-risk retail loans and a cautious approach to corporate lending [6][9] - The bank's net interest margin has been under pressure due to interest rate cuts and a decrease in high-yield retail loans, leading to a 21% decline in net interest income for 2024 [6][9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to decline from 164,699 in 2023 to 134,677 in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.19% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease slightly from 46,455 in 2023 to 44,109 in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -0.90% [5] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is expected to remain stable at around 1.06% through 2025, with a provisioning coverage ratio projected to decline to 239.90% [5][6] Key Financial Metrics - The bank's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.13 yuan in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 9.39% [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 5.63 in 2025, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to be 0.51 [5][9] Loan and Asset Quality - The bank's total loans decreased by 33.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant reduction in retail loans exceeding 210 billion yuan [6][11] - The NPL ratio for corporate loans increased to 1.79% in the fourth quarter of 2024, indicating rising risks in the real estate sector [9][14] - Retail loan NPL generation is estimated to remain high at around 2.51% for 2024, despite a slight decrease in the overall retail loan NPL ratio [9][14] Dividend Policy - The bank has reduced its cash dividend payout ratio to 28.3% for 2024, which corresponds to a projected dividend yield of approximately 5.08% for 2025 [6][9]