上 市 公 司 交通运输 2026 年 04 月 15 日 京东工业 (07618) —— 26Q1 前瞻：数智化系统、AI 大模型优势持续体现， 轻资产加速拓客，增长有望提速 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 事件： ⚫ 我们预计公司 26Q1 收入 23-25%增长，经调净利润 35%以上增长。 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 20,398 | 23,952 | 29,206 | 35,221 | 42,391 | | 同比增长率（%） | 17.66 | 17.42 | 21.94 | 20.59 | 20.36 | | 归属普通股东净利润 | 1,073 | 1,131 | 1,638 | 2,210 | 2,786 | | 同比增长率（%） | 18.90 | 5.34 | 44.89 | 34.91 | 26.03 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.60 | 0.81 | 1.03 | | ROE ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of Rmb12.9 billion for 2025, reflecting a 4% year-over-year growth, while net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders declined by 52% to Rmb1.14 billion, which was below expectations due to weaker same-store sales and negative operating leverage [6][7]. - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 has been revised down from Rmb18.1 to Rmb7.4, and for 2027 from Rmb21.4 to Rmb8.1, with a new forecast for 2028 introduced at Rmb8.5. The target price has been adjusted from US$38.3 to US$14 based on the DCF model [6][7]. - The company experienced a net addition of 1,013 stores in 2025, with a total of 7,453 stores, marking a 16% year-over-year increase [8]. - Same-store sales fell by 25.5% year-over-year in Q4 2025, attributed to slower responsiveness from internal adjustments and strategic delays in new product launches [9]. - The company aims to recover same-store sales as its top KPI for 2026, focusing on store operations, user experience, product innovation, and organizational efficiency, with plans to open approximately 300 new domestic stores and 200 overseas stores [10]. - The company is transitioning to a brand commission cooperation model to align closely with franchisees while emphasizing product innovation and cost efficiency [10]. - The report expresses confidence in the company's high standardization, brand positioning, and long-term global expansion potential [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.467 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 143 million yuan, up 19% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 114 million yuan, reflecting a 24% increase year-on-year [5][8] - The company has maintained its leading position in the domestic projection market, with a market share of 66.5% in the online smart projection segment, an increase of 11.3 percentage points from the previous year. The high-end projection market has seen a doubling in sales [8] - The company is expanding its product offerings in both domestic and international markets, with new product launches and a focus on high-end laser projection products. The overseas market has shown rapid growth, particularly in Amazon's European region, where the company's products ranked first in GMV for the category [8] - The company's profitability improved sequentially in Q4 2025, with a gross margin of 31.65%, although it decreased year-on-year. The net profit margin for Q4 was 5.50%, showing a sequential improvement [8] - The profit forecast for 2026 and 2027 has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 348 million yuan and 434 million yuan, respectively. The company is expected to experience significant growth in its vehicle-mounted projection and commercial projection businesses [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The total revenue forecast for 2026 is 3.701 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 348 million yuan, representing a 142.5% increase compared to 2025 [7][9] - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 33.1% by 2028. The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase to 12.5% by 2028 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.467 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 143 million yuan, up 19% year-on-year [5][8] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.141 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2%, but a net profit decline of 60% due to losses in the automotive business and a high base from the previous year [8] - The domestic market remains strong, with the company holding the top position in sales and shipment volume for six consecutive years, while also expanding its presence in overseas markets [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 3.701 billion yuan in 2026, 4.014 billion yuan in 2027, and 4.370 billion yuan in 2028, with respective growth rates of 6.7%, 8.5%, and 8.9% [7] - The net profit forecast for 2026 is 348 million yuan, with a significant increase of 142.5% compared to 2025, and further growth expected in subsequent years [9] - The company’s gross margin for Q4 2025 was 31.65%, showing a quarter-on-quarter improvement despite a year-on-year decline [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Poly Property (06049) [3][8] Core Views - The company has shown stable revenue growth with a projected revenue increase of 5% year-on-year for 2025, reaching 17.1 billion RMB, and a net profit of 1.55 billion RMB, also reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year growth [8] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.401 RMB per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 50% of net profit, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 5.1% based on the closing price as of March 31, 2026 [8] - Poly Property is strategically expanding into non-residential property management sectors, supported by its parent company, Poly Real Estate, which enhances its growth certainty [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024: 16.34 billion RMB - 2025: 17.13 billion RMB - 2026E: 18.08 billion RMB - 2027E: 19.06 billion RMB - 2028E: 20.16 billion RMB - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted to be: - 2024: 1.47 billion RMB - 2025: 1.55 billion RMB - 2026E: 1.63 billion RMB - 2027E: 1.72 billion RMB - 2028E: 1.82 billion RMB - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are: - 2024: 2.68 RMB - 2025: 2.81 RMB - 2026E: 2.95 RMB - 2027E: 3.11 RMB - 2028E: 3.28 RMB - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be around 14.35% for 2026 [7][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.467 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 143 million yuan, up 19% year-on-year [5][8] - The company has maintained its leading position in the domestic projection market, with a market share of 66.5% in the online smart projection segment, an increase of 11.3 percentage points from the previous year [8] - The company is expanding its product offerings in both domestic and international markets, with significant growth in high-end projection products and new business areas such as industry display and automotive optics [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The total revenue forecast for 2026 is 3.701 billion yuan, with a projected year-on-year growth rate of 6.7% [7] - The net profit forecast for 2026 is 348 million yuan, representing a substantial increase of 142.5% compared to 2025 [7] - The company’s gross margin for Q4 2025 was 31.65%, showing a quarter-on-quarter improvement despite a year-on-year decline [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Visual is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - Hisense Visual reported a revenue of 57.679 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.454 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.877 billion yuan, up 3% year-on-year [5][8] - The company is focusing on large-screen, high-end, and global expansion, with significant growth in its second growth curve. The average TV size globally reached 51.6 inches in 2025, with China leading at 62.4 inches. Sales of MiniLED products increased by 23%, and sales of products over 98 inches grew by over 50% [8] - The profitability of Hisense Visual is steadily improving, with a gross margin of 19.70% in Q4 2025, an increase of 3.25 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for Q4 was 6.09%, up 0.45 percentage points year-on-year [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The total revenue forecast for 2026 is 62.835 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.670 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.8% increase [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 is projected to be 2.05 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11 times [7][9] - The company anticipates continued revenue growth driven by the increasing average screen size and the penetration of MiniLED technology, maintaining the "Outperform" rating [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.491 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 54%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 705 million yuan, also up by 52% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 680 million yuan, reflecting a 54% increase year-on-year [5][8] - The company's core business continues to show strong growth, with significant contributions from NAS (Network Attached Storage) products, which saw a revenue increase of 213.18% year-on-year, reaching 1.226 billion yuan in 2025. The launch of AI NAS at CES 2026 is expected to enhance growth potential in this segment [8] - The company maintains a stable profitability profile, with a gross margin of 36.91% in Q4 2025, and a net profit margin of 7.57% [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 12.082 billion yuan in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 915 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 29.8% [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.20 yuan in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31 times [7][9] - The company has a stable return on equity (ROE) forecasted to be 22.6% in 2026, increasing to 25.8% by 2028 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a stable growth in its core lens business and is expanding its XR (Extended Reality) new business both domestically and internationally, while deepening cooperation along the industry chain [2][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.186 billion RMB in FY2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, and a net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of 558 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 30.2% [6][7] - The company is expected to accelerate revenue growth in 2026 due to strategic adjustments in its business structure and the rapid development of its proprietary brand [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for FY2024 to FY2028 are as follows: 2.061 billion RMB (FY2024), 2.186 billion RMB (FY2025), 2.495 billion RMB (FY2026), 2.832 billion RMB (FY2027), and 3.218 billion RMB (FY2028) [3][7] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is projected to grow from 428 million RMB in FY2024 to 1.036 billion RMB in FY2028, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 30%, 24%, 23%, and 22% [3][7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.00 RMB in FY2024 to 2.04 RMB in FY2028 [3][7] Business Segment Analysis - The company’s proprietary brand and OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) business generated revenues of 1.423 billion RMB and 763 million RMB in FY2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.6% and a decline of 2.9%, respectively [6] - Revenue by region in FY2025 was as follows: China (751 million RMB, +14.6%), Asia (excluding China) (524 million RMB, +0.3%), Americas (492 million RMB, +3.7%), Europe (344 million RMB, +7.9%), Oceania (52 million RMB, -21.1%), and Africa (23 million RMB, -5.0%) [6] Profitability and Efficiency - The company’s gross margin improved to 42.0% in FY2025, an increase of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 42.9% in H2 FY2025 [6] - The company’s operating expenses as a percentage of revenue showed optimization, with sales and distribution expenses at 5.7%, administrative expenses at 9.7%, and financial expenses at 0.3% in FY2025 [6] XR Business Development - The company has established a significant advantage in XR business, with over 20 leading domestic and international smart glasses developers collaborating with the company [6] - A new Neo Vision XR lens production line and cleanroom were launched in H2 FY2025 to enhance customized research and development, as well as production and delivery capabilities [6] Strategic Partnerships - The company invested 180 million RMB to acquire a stake in Hangzhou Lingban Technology (Rokid), a leading AI glasses brand, enhancing its collaboration within the industry chain [6] - The company is actively expanding its presence in the smart glasses market, which is experiencing rapid growth, with projected sales of AI smart glasses reaching 7.46 million units in 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.833 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.48%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 888 million yuan, a significant increase of 119.15% [4][7] - The clinical trial technical services business showed signs of recovery, with a revenue of 3.267 billion yuan in 2025, up 2.79% year-on-year, despite a decline in domestic innovative drug clinical operations due to industry cycles [7] - New order prices have stabilized, and net new orders returned to rapid growth, amounting to 10.16 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.7% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2026E at 7.754 billion yuan, 2027E at 9.109 billion yuan, and 2028E at 11.154 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 13.5%, 17.5%, and 22.5% respectively [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.177 billion yuan in 2026E, 1.382 billion yuan in 2027E, and 1.735 billion yuan in 2028E, with growth rates of 32.6%, 17.4%, and 25.5% respectively [6] - The company's projected PE ratios are 39 for 2026, 34 for 2027, and 27 for 2028, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [7]