两俄减产，钾肥价格上行

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][11]. Core Viewpoints - The global potash industry is expected to see a favorable supply-demand balance due to production cuts from Belarus and Russia, alongside limited new capacity additions [6][11]. - The demand for potash is projected to grow steadily, driven by an increase in global agricultural planting areas and modernization in emerging markets [8][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Potash is one of the three essential nutrients for crop growth, widely used in major crops to enhance yield and quality. Chloride potassium accounts for over 90% of potash products due to its rich resources and high nutrient concentration [5][14]. - The global distribution of potash resources is highly uneven, with Canada, Russia, and Belarus holding significant reserves and production shares of 31.0%, 18.6%, and 14.5% respectively [5][15]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2025, Belarus and Russia are expected to jointly reduce potash production, with Belarus's Belaruskali planning a significant maintenance operation that could reduce output by 900,000 to 1,000,000 tons [7][18]. - The International Fertilizer Association (IFA) forecasts that global potash consumption will reach 41 million tons in 2025, an increase of 1 million tons from 2024 [8][21]. - The supply side is projected to see a change in potash production ranging from a decrease of 300,000 tons to an increase of 800,000 tons, which is lower than the anticipated demand growth of 1.6 million tons [23][24]. Price Trends - Recent trends indicate an upward movement in potash prices, with domestic prices for various types of potassium chloride increasing by 9.8% to 27.5% compared to the beginning of the year [10][26]. - The domestic reliance on imports for potash is high, reaching approximately 67% in 2024, which causes domestic prices to follow global trends [10][26].