房地产行业最新观点及25年1-2月数据深度解读：推货不足制约1-2月新房销售，关注后续房贷款利率进一步下降的时间表-2025-03-18

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate sector, suggesting investors consider allocating resources to this sector despite short-term uncertainties [3][7]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in new home sales due to insufficient supply, with a focus on the timeline for further decreases in mortgage rates [1][7]. - The report indicates that new construction starts are expected to gradually decrease in the first half of 2025, influenced by the limited availability of land in high-demand cities [2][44]. - The overall investment in real estate development has shown a downward trend, reflecting the industry's contraction over the past two years, although there are signs of short-term recovery due to increased construction activity [2][44]. Summary by Sections Sales and Market Performance - In January-February 2025, the adjusted year-on-year growth rate for new home sales area was -5.1%, indicating a slight decline in market activity [15][16]. - The sales amount for the same period was 1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year adjusted growth rate of -2.6% [9][15]. - The average price of new homes increased by 2.6% year-on-year, reflecting a slight upward trend in pricing despite overall sales declines [15][16]. Construction and Investment Trends - The new construction area for January-February 2025 saw a year-on-year adjusted decline of 29.6%, suggesting a significant reduction in new projects [2][44]. - The total investment in real estate development was 1.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year adjusted decrease of 9.8%, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [9][44]. - The report anticipates a potential weak rebound in construction completion rates in early 2025, although mid-term trends may still show a downward trajectory [44]. Financial Indicators - The funding index for the real estate sector remained stable at 127%, which is historically low, but there are expectations for improvement as policies are implemented [2][7]. - The report highlights that domestic loans have shown a higher growth rate compared to new construction, indicating a shift in financing strategies among real estate companies [2][7]. - The overall funding sources for real estate development totaled 1.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year adjusted growth rate of -3.6%, reflecting ongoing financial pressures [9][13].