关注低估值补涨品种，待回调布局科技主线

Group 1 - The report suggests focusing on undervalued rebound stocks while waiting for a correction to position in the technology sector, indicating that the Hang Seng Index is approaching a reasonable valuation around 25,000, but further valuation upgrades require strong fundamental data and earnings support [1][16][31] - Key sectors to focus on include infrastructure benefiting from local debt acceleration, high dividend defensive sectors, stable consumer brands, and leading companies in AI and the internet post-differentiation [1][16] - The report highlights that the consumer credit policy introduced will help lower short-term financing costs for residents, but the root cause of credit contraction needs to be addressed through boosting medium to long-term income expectations and confidence [1][16] Group 2 - The report notes that the U.S. stock market saw a record high in put option trading volume, indicating extreme pessimism, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have completed double-top measured declines, suggesting a potential for a short-term rebound [2] - The report indicates that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.3%, with inflation concerns easing slightly, but uncertainties regarding Trump's policies continue to affect consumer confidence [3][18] - The report mentions that the Chinese retail sales growth for January-February was 4.0%, showing a recovery, but the overall credit environment remains weak, with M1 growth at a historical low [4][13][10] Group 3 - The report states that the Hang Seng Index and MSCI China Index have forecasted P/E ratios of 10.5x and 11.6x, respectively, which are at 60.1% and 63.7% of their seven-year percentiles, indicating that current valuations are approaching historical highs [31][32] - The report emphasizes that the current risk premium for the Hang Seng Index is at 5.2%, which is the lowest since 2018, suggesting that further valuation improvements will depend on sustained earnings growth and supportive internal policies [31][32] - The report highlights that the net inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks remains strong, with a net inflow of 61.6 billion HKD last week, indicating continued interest in sectors like consumer discretionary and non-bank financials [25][26]