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化工周报：《提振消费专项行动方案》有望拉动相关产品需求增长-2025-03-18
Tai Ping Yang Zheng Quan·2025-03-18 05:03

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The "Consumption Boost Action Plan" is expected to drive demand growth for related products, particularly in real estate, childcare, and daily consumer goods [1] - The refrigerant market is entering a demand peak, with prices for major refrigerants showing an upward trend due to supply concerns and increased domestic consumption [2][3] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. in the refrigerant sector, and Tongyi Zhong in the ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) sector [3] Summary by Sections 1. Key Industry and Product Tracking - The "Consumption Boost Action Plan" aims to enhance domestic demand across various sectors, including real estate-related products like refrigerants and coatings, childcare products like adhesive for diapers, and daily consumer goods such as textiles and food additives [1] - Refrigerant prices are rising, with R142b priced at 27,000 CNY/ton (up 2,000 CNY/ton), R22 at 35,750 CNY/ton (up 250 CNY/ton), and R134a at 45,500 CNY/ton (up 500 CNY/ton) as of March 16 [2][3] 2. Detailed Product Price Tracking - Among 58 monitored products, notable price increases include calcium carbide (up 3.05%), palm oil (up 2.54%), and Brent crude oil (up 2.38%), while significant declines were seen in acrylic acid (down 8.03%) and vitamin E (down 5.51%) [11] - The report highlights that MDI prices are declining due to weak demand, with the average price for polymer MDI at 17,000 CNY/ton (down 750 CNY/ton) and pure MDI at 18,200 CNY/ton (down 400 CNY/ton) [15] 3. Agricultural Chemicals - Phosphate fertilizer prices are rising, with diammonium phosphate at 3,358 CNY/ton (up 20 CNY/ton) and monoammonium phosphate at 3,316 CNY/ton [20] - Glyphosate prices remain stable at 22,909 CNY/ton, with a weekly production of 10,400 tons [17] 4. Fluorochemical Sector - R22 and R134a prices are increasing, driven by rising export orders and domestic consumption incentives, with R22 at 35,750 CNY/ton and R134a at 45,500 CNY/ton [27] - The supply concerns are exacerbated by quota reductions, leading to an improved supply-demand relationship [27]