Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][63]. Core Views - The company, Xiaxia Precision, is a leading domestic player in small modulus gears, primarily serving the automotive gear, power tools, and reducer markets. The humanoid robot industry is expected to drive new growth for the company's gear and reducer products [5][39]. - The company has shown stable revenue growth, with a projected revenue increase from 6.57 billion yuan in 2024 to 9.77 billion yuan in 2026, alongside a recovery in profit margins [5][63]. - The humanoid robot industry is entering a critical phase of industrialization, with significant production expectations from major players like Tesla, which could lead to a substantial increase in demand for gears and reducers [5][43]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company reported total revenue of 5.28 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected growth rate of 24% in 2024 and 23% in 2025 [5][64]. - The net profit for 2023 was 720 million yuan, with expectations of 810 million yuan in 2024 and 980 million yuan in 2025 [5][64]. - The company's PE ratio is projected to decrease from 73.5 in 2024 to 46.9 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [5][63]. Business Overview - Xiaxia Precision has a market share of 1.8% in the global small modulus gear market, ranking second [5][49]. - The company has a stable ownership structure, with the controlling family holding a significant majority of shares [5][23]. - The main products include automotive gears, electric tool gears, reducers, and related equipment, with automotive gears accounting for nearly 60% of revenue [5][5][19]. Industry Trends - The gear and reducer industry is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of the humanoid robot market, with a projected CAGR of over 80% from 2025 to 2035 [5][43]. - The overall gear market in China reached 346 billion yuan in 2023, with the reducer market at 138.7 billion yuan, both showing steady growth driven by the automotive and robotics sectors [5][34].
夏厦精密（001306）：国产小模数齿轮龙头，受益于人形机器人产业趋势