GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-03-18 01:30Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Xintian Green Energy [3][5]. Core Views - Xintian Green Energy is positioned as a leading clean energy company in North China, focusing on wind and natural gas sectors, with a strong operational base in Hebei and plans for national expansion [1][13]. - The company has demonstrated stable revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.47% from 2020 to 2023, and expects continued growth driven by LNG production and expanded wind power capacity [16][20]. - The financial outlook is positive, with projected revenues of CNY 226.89 billion, CNY 253.96 billion, and CNY 273.19 billion for 2024-2026, alongside net profits of CNY 23.35 billion, CNY 29.56 billion, and CNY 34.10 billion for the same period [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Overview - Xintian Green Energy was established in February 2010 and has been listed on both the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges. The company is controlled by the Hebei State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [1][13]. - The company has a diversified energy portfolio, with a focus on wind and natural gas, which helps mitigate earnings volatility [1][13]. 2. Wind Power and Natural Gas Expansion - The company has a robust wind power capacity, with a total installed capacity of 6,293.75 MW as of the end of 2023, and plans to expand further in both onshore and offshore wind projects [2][19]. - The natural gas segment is also expanding, with a comprehensive supply chain and increasing sales volume, supported by the optimization of pricing mechanisms [2][3]. 3. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is expected to reach CNY 226.89 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.9%. Net profit is projected at CNY 23.35 billion, reflecting a growth of 5.8% [3][4]. - The company has maintained a stable operating cash flow, with cash flow from operating activities reaching CNY 4.85 billion in 2023, and a five-year CAGR of 6.78% [24][27]. 4. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Xintian Green Energy benefits from favorable policies in Hebei, where renewable energy consumption is prioritized, and has a high utilization rate of wind resources, averaging over 2,400 hours annually [30][35]. - The company’s competitive edge is reinforced by its strong operational efficiency and the ability to maintain stable electricity prices despite market pressures [30][35]. 5. Future Growth Potential - The report highlights significant growth potential in both wind and natural gas sectors, with ongoing projects and favorable market conditions expected to drive future earnings [2][3]. - The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for clean energy in China, supported by government policies and market trends [1][2].