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智元推出通用具身模型，人形机器人产业端进展加速
中航证券·2025-03-19 03:16

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [3][22]. Core Views - The humanoid robot industry is entering a critical breakthrough phase, with global cumulative demand expected to reach approximately 2 million units by 2030, favoring Tier 1 and core component suppliers [6][19]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector is seeing accelerated penetration of N-type technology, enhancing the competitiveness of leading companies under the Matthew effect [6][19]. - Energy storage is essential for building a new type of power grid, with favorable policies boosting industry prosperity, particularly for leading companies in batteries, inverters, and integration [6][19]. - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to reach 140billionby2030,withincreasingdemandinmainlandChina,althoughthedomesticproductionrateremainslow[6][19].−Theautomationmarket,withacurrentscaleofaround40billion,isexpectedtogrowto55.7billionby2026,benefitingfromincreasedconcentrationandimportsubstitution[6][19].−Greenhydrogenalignswithcarbonneutralitygoals,withrapiddevelopmentinphotovoltaicandwindenergylayingthefoundationforhydrogenproduction[6][19].−Intheconstructionmachinerysector,strongcompaniesareexpectedtomaintaintheiradvantages,withafocusonfirmswithproduct,scale,andcostadvantages[6][19].SummarybySectionsHumanoidRobotIndustry−RecentcatalystsinthehumanoidrobotsupplychainincludethelaunchoftheGenieOperator−1modelbyZhiyuanRobotics,whichutilizesanewarchitectureforenhancedlearningcapabilities[7][10].−DualLinCo.introducedanewreverseplanetaryrollerscrew,significantlyimprovingloadcapacityby300140 billion by 2030, with increasing demand in mainland China, although the domestic production rate remains low [6][19]. - The automation market, with a current scale of around 40 billion, is expected to grow to 55.7 billion by 2026, benefiting from increased concentration and import substitution [6][19]. - Green hydrogen aligns with carbon neutrality goals, with rapid development in photovoltaic and wind energy laying the foundation for hydrogen production [6][19]. - In the construction machinery sector, strong companies are expected to maintain their advantages, with a focus on firms with product, scale, and cost advantages [6][19]. Summary by Sections Humanoid Robot Industry - Recent catalysts in the humanoid robot supply chain include the launch of the Genie Operator-1 model by Zhiyuan Robotics, which utilizes a new architecture for enhanced learning capabilities [7][10]. - Dual Lin Co. introduced a new reverse planetary roller screw, significantly improving load capacity by 300% and extending lifespan by three times [10]. - Bourier has open-sourced a comprehensive humanoid robot dataset and toolchain, facilitating research and development in the industry [11]. Photovoltaic Equipment - The penetration rate of N-type technology is accelerating, with leading companies benefiting from technological innovation and scale [18]. - The overall price center of the photovoltaic industry chain is declining, focusing on cost and efficiency improvements [18]. Energy Storage - Favorable policies are driving the development of energy storage on both generation and user sides, with significant market opportunities emerging [18]. Semiconductor Equipment - The semiconductor equipment market is expected to double in the next decade, with a projected demand of 140 billion by 2030 [20]. Automation - The market for industrial consumables is expected to grow significantly, with a current size of around 40 billion, projected to reach 55.7 billion by 2026 [20]. Green Hydrogen - The development of green hydrogen is supported by advancements in photovoltaic and wind energy technologies [18]. Construction Machinery - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies in the construction machinery sector, which are expected to maintain their competitive advantages [20].