中原证券晨会聚焦-2025-03-19

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" investment rating for the chemical industry, particularly focusing on potassium fertilizer and organic silicon sectors [15][26]. Core Insights - The potassium fertilizer sector is experiencing a tightening supply-demand situation, leading to a continuous price increase since 2024. The report highlights the concentrated global supply and China's high dependency on imports [15]. - The organic silicon industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics as new production capacities stabilize and demand grows in electronics and renewable energy sectors [16]. - The software industry is projected to grow at a slower pace in 2024, with software business revenue expected to reach 13.73 trillion yuan, a 10% year-on-year increase, down from 13.4% in 2023 [17]. - The AI sector is entering a rapid growth phase, driven by advancements in large model capabilities and increased enterprise-level deployment needs [31][33]. - The gaming industry is showing robust growth potential, with a significant increase in market size and player engagement, supported by high-quality game development and favorable policies [34][35]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry - The chemical sector's valuation is currently below historical averages, with a TTM P/E ratio of 24.11, suggesting potential for growth [15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of potassium fertilizer due to its resource scarcity in China and the ongoing price increases driven by global supply constraints [15]. Software Industry - The software sector is facing a slowdown, with a projected revenue growth of 10% in 2024, indicating a need for strategic focus on sub-sectors [17]. - The report notes a decrease in the import dependency of integrated circuits, reflecting a shift towards domestic production [17]. AI and Technology - The AI sector is highlighted as a key growth driver, with significant investments from major tech companies and a focus on enterprise applications [19][33]. - The report discusses the competitive landscape of AI models, noting the emergence of cost-effective solutions that enhance deployment capabilities [31][33]. Gaming Industry - The gaming market is experiencing a surge in demand, with a notable increase in player numbers and revenue per user, indicating a healthy growth trajectory [34]. - The report points out the competitive advantage of Chinese games in overseas markets, bolstered by experience and quality improvements [35]. Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector is in an upward cycle, with strong sales growth and improving price conditions for memory products expected in the latter half of 2025 [28][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in driving semiconductor demand, particularly in the context of new product launches and technological advancements [28][29].