全球经济评论：贸易政策不确定性对劳动力市场的影响（摘要）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - Trade policy uncertainty (TPU) has increased significantly, impacting employment growth in developed markets [4][5]. - A rise in TPU to levels seen during the 2018-2019 trade war is estimated to lower year-over-year employment growth by 0.1-0.2 percentage points, translating to a monthly job growth reduction of approximately 10,000 to 30,000 jobs in the US and Euro area [10][24]. - The manufacturing sector is particularly affected, with a peak drag on employment growth estimated at 0.5 percentage points [10][24]. Summary by Sections Trade Policy Uncertainty and Employment - A large body of research indicates that TPU negatively impacts GDP primarily through delayed investments, but its effects on employment have been less studied [3][5]. - The report estimates that if TPU rises to 2018-2019 levels, it could slow employment growth in developed markets, particularly in manufacturing [10][24]. Regional Analysis - The analysis shows that regions with higher trade exposure, such as certain provinces in Canada and states in the US, experienced greater slowdowns in hiring during the last trade war [16][20]. - The report suggests that similar patterns may emerge in 2025, with trade-exposed economies facing more significant employment challenges due to rising TPU [16][20]. Statistical Evidence - Historical data supports the conclusion that increases in TPU have historically led to slower job growth, especially in trade-sensitive regions [20][24]. - The report includes various charts illustrating the relationship between TPU and employment growth, highlighting the statistical significance of these findings [12][30].