全年维度看珠宝板块投资机会

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the jewelry sector is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained for the year [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the jewelry industry is transitioning from a channel-driven model to a more refined brand-driven approach, suggesting that the valuation paradigm for leading jewelry companies should shift accordingly [6]. - The report expresses a cautious optimism regarding overall industry demand, highlighting that the second quarter of 2025 may serve as a performance inflection point due to a low base effect and potential contributions from new store formats and product categories [8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report includes a performance chart showing a range of percentage changes in the commercial trade index from March 2024 to December 2024, with notable fluctuations [4]. Industry Demand and Trends - The report notes that from January to February 2025, retail sales of gold and silver jewelry increased by 5.4% year-on-year, marking an end to a downward trend since April 2024 [8]. - The jewelry market in China is estimated to be approximately 820 billion yuan, with gold products accounting for 518 billion yuan, diamonds for 60 billion yuan, jade for 150 billion yuan, colored gemstones for 31 billion yuan, and pearls for 35 billion yuan [8]. Company-Specific Insights - Chow Tai Fook has shifted its focus from channel-driven to product-driven strategies, with a significant increase in the sales proportion of high-margin products from 5.7% in Q1 FY 2024 to 18.7% in Q3 FY 2025 [7]. - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Lao Pu Gold, Chao Hong Ji, and Zhou Da Sheng, while also monitoring Lao Feng Xiang, Cai Bai Co., Zhou Da Fu, Man Ka Long, and China Gold for potential opportunities [9][10].