2025年1~2月中国经济持续回升向好

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a favorable outlook for the industry fundamentals, with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [34]. Core Insights - In January-February 2025, China's industrial added value grew by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding the WIND forecast of 5.1%. This reflects a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from December 2024 but a recovery of 0.1 percentage points compared to the entire previous year [3][8]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in January-February 2025 showed a nominal growth of 4.0%, which is below the WIND forecast of 4.5%, but it represents a recovery of 0.3 percentage points from December 2024 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous year [3][8]. - Fixed asset investment in January-February 2025 had a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 4.1%, surpassing the WIND forecast of 3.8% and showing a recovery of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous year [3][8]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - The industrial production, retail, and fixed asset investment data for January-February 2025 indicate a recovery compared to the previous year, with significant improvements in industrial added value and fixed asset investment [8][14]. - The manufacturing sector saw a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 10.0% in fixed asset investment, while infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 5.6%. However, real estate investment continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% [4][8]. High-Frequency Indicators - The sales of construction machinery, particularly excavators, increased by 27.2% year-on-year in January-February 2025, marking the highest level since August 2021. This indicates a strong momentum in infrastructure investment [5][15]. - The manufacturing PMI index rebounded into the expansion zone in February 2025, reflecting a recovery in production activities. The national blast furnace operating rate reached 80.6%, up 1.9 percentage points from the end of the previous year [5][19]. Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector showed signs of improvement, with the national housing prosperity index rising to 93.8 in February 2025, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from January and 1 percentage point from the end of the previous year [23][26]. - Despite a year-on-year decline in new housing starts and construction area, the sales area of residential properties increased by 9% year-on-year in January-February 2025, indicating a recovery in housing sales [23][26]. Retail Sector - The nominal growth rate of retail sales varied across sectors, with communication equipment, sports and entertainment products, and cultural office supplies showing growth rates above 20%. In contrast, beverage and automotive sectors experienced declines of -2.6% and -4.4%, respectively [28][29].