C&S(002511) 海通证券·2025-03-17 13:19Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a decline in net profit in 2024 due to adjustments in low-efficiency businesses and increased market competition, with a projected net profit of 60-80 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 75.96%-81.97% [5][6] - The company is diversifying its product matrix from being a leader in household paper to a multi-faceted personal care leader, with a focus on brand building and enhancing profitability [5][6] - The company has a robust marketing network, expanding from a single distribution channel to five channels, including traditional distributors, large chain stores, commercial products, e-commerce, and new retail [5][6] Financial Data and Forecasts - The company's revenue is projected to be 8,865 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%, with a recovery expected in subsequent years [5][8] - Net profit is forecasted to be 71 million yuan in 2024, with a significant rebound to 298 million yuan in 2025 and 345 million yuan in 2026 [5][8] - The gross margin is expected to decline to 30.5% in 2024 but recover to 32.5% in 2025 and 32.8% in 2026 [5][8] Business Segment Performance - The revenue from the household paper segment is expected to decline by 9.8% in 2024, but is projected to grow by 13.4% and 10.2% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [7][8] - The personal care and other business segment is anticipated to grow by 5.0% in 2024, with further growth of 15.0% and 14.0% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [7][8] Valuation and Comparison - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 29 and 25 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a target valuation range of 6.91 to 7.14 yuan based on comparable companies [5][9] - The average PE ratio of comparable companies is 42.2, indicating potential upside for the company [9]