GUILIN FUDA (603166) 西南证券·2025-03-17 11:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15.84 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 12.90 CNY [1][13]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning into the robotics sector, aiming for high-end intelligent manufacturing. It has acquired a 35% stake in Changban (Yangzhou) Robot Technology Co., Ltd. and plans to establish a joint venture to enter the humanoid robot and intelligent equipment market [8][13]. - The company's crankshaft business remains strong, with a gross margin of 29.7% in 2023, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year. The company is also expanding its precision forging capabilities to enhance control over the entire supply chain [8][13]. - The company has successfully opened overseas markets, with significant sales growth in large crankshafts and new energy gear products, indicating potential for future growth [8][13]. - A stock incentive plan has been announced, reflecting the company's confidence in achieving ambitious profit targets over the next three years [8][13]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1,352.32 million CNY in 2023 to 3,021.46 million CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.98% from 2024 to 2026 [2][17]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 103.53 million CNY in 2023 to 400.71 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 57.0% over the same period [2][17]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.16 CNY in 2023 to 0.62 CNY in 2026 [2][17]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 81 in 2023 to 21 in 2026, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [2][17]. Business Segments - The crankshaft segment is expected to see revenue growth of 36.42% in 2024, with a gross margin stabilizing around 30% [10][12]. - The new energy electric drive gear segment is anticipated to grow significantly, with revenues projected at 0.25 million CNY in 2024 and reaching 3 million CNY by 2026 [13]. - The company is also focusing on expanding its capabilities in the robotics sector, which is expected to become a new profit growth point [8][13].