农林牧渔行业周报（20250309-20250316）：上市猪企1~2月出栏量同比双位数增长，USDA发布3月报告-2025-03-17

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in the pig farming sector, specifically suggesting companies such as Wen's Foodstuffs, Tangrenshen, Juxing Agriculture, and Huatong Food, while also advising to pay attention to Xinwufeng. In the broiler farming sector, it recommends Shennong Development and suggests关注 Yisheng股份 and Hefeng股份. For the seed industry, it recommends Longping High-Tech and suggests关注 Dabeinong and Denghai Seeds. In the feed sector, it advises关注 Haida Group [3][4][39]. Core Insights - The pig farming sector has seen a recovery in prices, with the average price of live pigs as of March 14 being 14.57 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.83% and a year-on-year increase of 0.55%. The number of pigs slaughtered from March 8 to March 14 was 1.0167 million, up 3.26% week-on-week and 9.96% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in the industry [1][10][25]. - In the broiler farming sector, the average price of white feather broilers reached 7.11 yuan/kg, up 7.89% week-on-week. The price of broiler chicks also increased by 9.84% to 2.79 yuan/chick. The demand for white feather chickens is primarily driven by group meals and canteens, suggesting potential price increases if demand recovers [2][11][27]. - The USDA's March report indicates an increase in global production estimates for corn and wheat, with global corn production at 1.214 billion tons and wheat production at 797 million tons. This could impact the agricultural commodity market positively [3][13][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 14.57 yuan/kg as of March 14, with a week-on-week increase of 0.83% and a year-on-year increase of 0.55%. The number of pigs slaughtered increased to 1.0167 million, reflecting a 3.26% increase week-on-week and a 9.96% increase year-on-year [1][10][25]. - The total number of pigs marketed by listed companies in February was 8.2862 million, a year-on-year increase of 35.85%, while the total for January and February was 28.9474 million, up 12.46% year-on-year [1][10]. 2. Broiler Farming - The average price of white feather broilers is 7.11 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 7.89%. The price of broiler chicks is 2.79 yuan/chick, up 9.84% [2][11][27]. - The profit for white feather broiler farming is currently negative at -0.51 yuan/chick, while parent stock profitability is slightly positive at 0.04 yuan/chick [2][11]. 3. Planting Chain - The USDA report indicates global corn production at 1.214 billion tons, with a consumption of 1.239 billion tons. For wheat, production is estimated at 797 million tons, with consumption at 807 million tons [3][13][30]. - The report also notes a decrease in China's corn import estimates by 2 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 65.83% [3][13]. 4. Feed Sector - The average price of pig feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.73% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.66% [15][35]. - The total industrial feed production in 2024 was 315 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% [16][35].