宏观周报：本周看什么？美债走向、央行会议-2025-03-17

Group 1 - The report focuses on two main areas: the future direction of US Treasury bonds post-recession trading and the recent expanded meetings of the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission [3][5] - The report indicates that the recent rapid recession trading requires a period of adjustment, with the 10Y-3M yield curve inversion showing signs of easing, suggesting that the market is more influenced by "atmospheric recession" rather than fundamental economic weakness [5][17] - It is noted that the US economy still shows resilience, and while Treasury yields may rise in the short term, the overall upward movement is expected to be limited, providing ongoing trading opportunities [5][17] Group 2 - The central bank's expanded meeting emphasized a clearer understanding of "moderate easing" as a monetary policy goal, balancing short-term and long-term objectives while supporting the real economy [26][27] - The report highlights that the market's previous optimistic interpretation of monetary policy easing may have been overly optimistic, leading to a tighter perceived funding environment despite the stated policy direction [29][31] - The report suggests that structural monetary policy tools aimed at supporting technology innovation and stabilizing foreign trade are likely to be introduced, enhancing credit expansion in targeted areas [37][38] Group 3 - High-frequency macro data indicates an upward trend in the real estate, transportation, and coal-steel industries, while the construction materials and petrochemical sectors are still in need of recovery [3][6] - The report provides insights into various economic indicators, such as industrial production, consumer behavior, and commodity prices, reflecting the current economic landscape [44][45] - The report notes that the overall economic environment is characterized by a mix of recovery in certain sectors and ongoing challenges in others, necessitating careful monitoring of key variables like M1, corporate profits, and prices [6][44]