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2025年石油化工行业春季投资策略:成本下行叠加资本开支放缓,中下游曙光已现
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-03-17 08:26

Group 1 - The oil and gas extraction sector is expected to experience a "U" shaped price trend, with Brent crude oil projected to range between $60 and $80 per barrel in 2025. Supply is anticipated to increase significantly, led by non-OPEC production, while demand remains stable with a global GDP growth rate of 3.2% [3][9][10] - The refining and olefins sector is nearing a bottom in terms of profitability, with significant supply pressures still present. The profitability in the midstream sector is expected to remain at the bottom level for the next two years, but there is potential for recovery in 2025 as oil prices decline [4][8] - The polyester industry is witnessing a shift in profit margins down the supply chain, with expectations of a gradual improvement in market conditions. The production capacity for polyester filament yarn is nearing completion, and a rebound in the industry is anticipated in the second half of 2025 [5][8] Group 2 - Investment analysis suggests a favorable outlook for ethane-to-ethylene projects in China, with recommendations for companies like Satellite Chemical. The polyester sector is expected to tighten supply, providing a good basis for price increases, with recommendations for companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [6][8] - The refining sector is expected to benefit from stricter consumption tax regulations and lower operating rates in small refineries, with a focus on high-quality large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [6][8] - The upstream exploration and development sector remains highly favorable, with capital expenditures in offshore oil services expected to remain high, recommending companies like CNOOC Services and Offshore Engineering [6][8]