Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The retail sales growth for January-February 2025 is 4.0% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 4.5%, with furniture, cultural office supplies, cosmetics, gold and silver jewelry, and online retail sales growing by 11.7%, 21.8%, 4.4%, 5.4%, and 7.3% respectively [1][3] - The real estate sector shows a downward trend with new housing starts, completed areas, sales areas, and residential development investment down by 28.9%, 17.7%, 3.4%, and 9.2% year-on-year respectively [2][6] - The government is expected to implement stronger fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize the real estate market, with a proposed deficit rate of 4% and a total government debt of 11.86 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan [2][6] Summary by Sections Retail Sector - The retail sector is expected to recover with the implementation of consumption stimulus policies, particularly in the home furnishing segment, driven by the "old-for-new" policy [3][6] - The growth rates for furniture, cultural office supplies, cosmetics, and gold and silver jewelry have improved compared to December 2024, indicating a resurgence in consumer demand [3][6] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market is anticipated to stabilize as credit demand recovers, with a notable increase in new long-term loans in February 2025, amounting to 300 billion yuan, which is an increase of 153.8 billion yuan year-on-year [2][6] - The government’s focus on stabilizing the real estate market is reflected in the recent policy announcements, which are expected to support housing demand and prices [2][6] Consumer Trends - The report highlights a significant shift towards domestic brands, with the "trendy" domestic products gaining market share as foreign brands see a decline [3][6] - Online retail continues to outperform traditional retail, with a growth rate of 7.3% in January-February 2025, indicating a steady increase in the online shopping penetration rate [3][6]