Guotou Securities·2025-03-17 07:23Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the issuance of special bonds is accelerating, and with the arrival of the construction peak season, infrastructure investment growth is expected to improve [2][16] - The government is focused on stabilizing the real estate market, with policies aimed at both supply and demand sides, which is expected to support a recovery in real estate demand [3][18] - The report suggests that the construction sector is likely to benefit from increased government investment and the implementation of debt relief measures, leading to improved operational metrics for construction companies [11][12] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics Analysis - The issuance of special bonds has increased significantly, and with the construction peak season approaching, infrastructure investment growth may see improvement. As of the end of February, the broad money (M2) balance was 320.52 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7% [16][18] - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with significant increases in second-hand housing transactions in major cities. From the beginning of the year to March 12, the daily average transaction volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increased by 35.10%, 50.52%, and 65.63% respectively [3][18] Market Performance - The construction industry rose by 1.60% from March 10 to March 14, outperforming the Shenzhen Composite Index (1.24%) and the CSI 300 Index (1.59%). The renovation and decoration sector saw the highest increase at 3.49% [19][22] - The report highlights key stocks to watch, including major state-owned enterprises in construction, which are expected to benefit from improved operational metrics and valuation recovery [11][28] Key Focus Stocks - The report recommends focusing on undervalued construction state-owned enterprises such as China State Construction, China Communications Construction, China Railway Construction, and China Railway Group, which are expected to see improvements in operational metrics due to favorable fiscal policies [11][12][28] - It also suggests paying attention to construction design firms and international engineering service providers that are expanding their presence in the Belt and Road Initiative countries [12][28]