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新秀丽(01910):公司年报点评:24Q4各地区环比提速,25Q1预计欧洲和印度领增
01910SAMSONITE(01910) 海通证券·2025-03-17 03:25

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company has a solid position as the world's largest luggage brand, with TUMI's store openings gradually realizing potential, and long-term growth prospects in the Asia-Pacific region [7]. - The company is expected to see a net profit of 382millionin2025and382 million in 2025 and 413 million in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (PE) valuation range of 14-15X for 2025, translating to a fair value range of HKD 28.60-30.65 per share [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 3.682billion,withayearonyeargrowthof27.93.682 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 27.9%. However, a slight decline of 2.5% is expected in 2024, with revenues projected at 3.589 billion [6]. - The net profit for 2023 was 417million,reflectingayearonyearincreaseof33.4417 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.4%, but a decrease of 17.1% is anticipated for 2024, bringing the net profit down to 346 million [6]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 59.3%, which is expected to improve to 60.0% in 2024 and remain stable in the following years [6]. - The company maintained a net debt level that is historically low, with a net leverage ratio of 1.58x [7]. Regional Performance Insights - In Q4 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 0.1% year-on-year to 940million,butthegrossmarginimprovedby0.3percentagepointsto60.2940 million, but the gross margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 60.2% [7]. - Revenue growth varied by region, with North America showing the most significant improvement at 11.7%, while Asia (excluding India) saw a decline of 1.6% [7]. - For Q1 2025, overall revenue is expected to decline in the mid to low single digits, with India projected to return to positive growth [7]. Store Expansion and Cash Flow - The company expanded its store count by 6.4% in 2024, with a net addition of 67 stores, primarily in Asia and Europe [7]. - Adjusted free cash flow increased by 9.3% to 310 million, with a total dividend and buyback amounting to 150millionand150 million and 160 million, respectively [7].