Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for the company with a target price (TP) revised down by 9% to HK$ 25.35, implying a 36.9% upside from the current price of HK$ 18.52 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company experienced mixed performance in FY24, with net sales remaining flat at US$ 3.6 billion, while net profit decreased by 13% YoY to US$ 346 million, primarily due to higher selling expenses and fewer impairment reversals [1][2]. - Major markets such as Asia and North America saw declines of 3.6% and 1.2% YoY, respectively, but growth in Europe and Latin America offset these declines with increases of 3.1% and 17.0% YoY [1]. - The management anticipates a decline in sales for 1Q25, projecting a fall by low single digits to mid single digits, influenced by weak US consumer sentiment despite a recovery in Asia [1][9]. - Organic sales and net profit are expected to grow by 1.5% and 1.8% YoY in FY25E, respectively, supported by ongoing share buybacks and progress in dual-listing [1][9]. Financial Summary - For FY24, the company reported revenue of US$ 3,589 million, a decrease of 2.5% YoY, with a projected revenue of US$ 3,731 million for FY25E, reflecting a growth of 4.0% [2][32]. - The net profit for FY24 was US$ 346 million, down 12.9% YoY, with an expected slight recovery to US$ 351.8 million in FY25E [2][32]. - The report indicates a decline in gross profit margin from 60.0% in FY24 to an expected 59.5% in FY25E, while the operating profit margin is projected to remain at 17.1% [29][32]. Market Performance - The company's stock has seen a decline of 14.1% over the past month and 14.3% over the past three months, indicating a challenging market environment [5]. - The current market capitalization stands at HK$ 26,729.4 million, with an average turnover of HK$ 128.1 million over the last three months [3]. Shareholding Structure - Major shareholders include Schroders PLC with 6.0% and Bank of New York Mellon Corporation with 5.4% [4]. E-commerce Performance - In the first two months of FY25, online sales on major platforms like TBTM and JD.com decreased by 7% and 18% YoY, while sales on Douyin surged by 200% YoY, indicating a shift in consumer preferences and effective marketing strategies [9][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [5][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's gross profit margin remains robust at 60.2% for Q4, with expectations for revenue growth to improve in Q1 2025 [7][14]. - The company has announced a buyback plan, reflecting long-term confidence in its performance [2][14]. - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 2.5% to USD 3.59 billion, with a slight recovery expected in 2025 [7][14]. Financial Data and Forecasts - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: USD 3,682 million - 2024: USD 3,589 million - 2025E: USD 3,743 million - 2026E: USD 3,928 million - 2027E: USD 4,118 million - Year-over-year growth rates show a decline of 2.5% in 2024, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [4][11]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: USD 417 million - 2024: USD 346 million - 2025E: USD 382 million - 2026E: USD 413 million - 2027E: USD 440 million - The net profit margin is expected to recover gradually after a decline in 2024 [4][11]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: USD 0.29 - 2024: USD 0.24 - 2025E: USD 0.26 - 2026E: USD 0.28 - 2027E: USD 0.30 [4][11]. - **Gross Margin**: - 2023: 59.3% - 2024: 60.0% - 2025E: 60.0% - 2026E: 60.1% - 2027E: 60.2% [4][11]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023: 28.8% - 2024: 23.4% - 2025E: 20.6% - 2026E: 18.2% - 2027E: 16.2% [4][11]. Market Performance - The company's stock closed at HKD 19.10, with a 52-week price range of HKD 16.78 to HKD 31.60 [5][14]. - The total market capitalization is approximately HKD 27,930 million [5][14]. Revenue Performance by Region - Q4 2024 revenue showed a slight decline of 0.1% year-over-year, with a currency-neutral increase of 1% [7][14]. - Revenue changes in Q4 2024 by region were as follows: - Asia: -6.3% - North America: +3.9% - Europe: +5.6% - Latin America: +14% [7][14]. Cash Flow and Dividends - Adjusted free cash flow increased by 9.3% to USD 310 million [7][14]. - Total dividends for the year were USD 150 million, with a payout ratio of 43.4% [7][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, but a slight decline of 0.2% when excluding foreign exchange impacts. Adjusted EBITDA was $680 million, down 3.7% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was $350 million, down 12.9% year-on-year. In Q4 alone, revenue reached $940 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%, with adjusted EBITDA of $190 million, up 7.7% year-on-year, and net profit of $110 million, up 22.7% year-on-year [1][5][12]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q4, North America, Europe, and China saw positive revenue growth, while India and South Korea experienced declines, leading to a 7% year-on-year drop in Asian revenue. Specifically, revenue from China was $70 million (up 2%), India $50 million (down 28%), Japan $50 million (up 3%), and South Korea $30 million (down 17%). North America generated $350 million (up 4%), with the U.S. contributing $330 million (up 4%). Europe achieved $210 million (up 5%), with Belgium at $60 million (up 16%) and Germany at $30 million (down 7%) [2][3]. Brand and Channel Performance - In Q4, the brands TUMI and Samsonite saw revenue growth, with TUMI at $250 million (up 4%) and Samsonite at $480 million (up 3%). The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) channel showed stable performance, with revenues of $280 million (up 0.1%) and $130 million (up 1.2%) for DTC self-operated and DTC e-commerce channels, respectively. The company plans to open 67 new stores, increasing the total to 1,119, demonstrating confidence in growth despite a weak retail environment [3][4]. Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for Q4 was 60.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to higher-end brand performance and discount control. The adjusted EBITDA margin reached 20.7%, a historical high, while the net profit margin was 12.2%, down 3.5 percentage points year-on-year due to a high base from previous impairment reversals [4][5]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $3.7 billion, $3.8 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.8%, 4.1%, and 3.5%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be $370 million, $410 million, and $460 million for the same years, with growth rates of 6.2%, 10.8%, and 12.8%. The price-to-earnings ratio is estimated to be 10, 9, and 8 times for the respective years [5][12][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, but a slight decrease of 0.2% when excluding foreign exchange impacts. Adjusted EBITDA was $680 million, down 3.7% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was $350 million, down 12.9% year-on-year. In Q4 alone, revenue reached $940 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%, with adjusted EBITDA of $190 million, up 7.7% year-on-year, and net profit of $110 million, up 22.7% year-on-year [1][5] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q4, North America, Europe, and China saw positive revenue growth, while India and South Korea experienced declines, leading to a 7% year-on-year decrease in Asian revenue. Specifically, revenue from China was $70 million (up 2% year-on-year), India was $50 million (down 28% year-on-year), Japan was $50 million (up 3% year-on-year), and South Korea was $30 million (down 17% year-on-year) [2] Brand and Channel Performance - In Q4, revenue from the brands Samsonite, TUMI, and American Tourister was $480 million, $250 million, and $150 million, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 3%, 4%, and a decline of 9%. The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) channel showed stable performance with revenues of $280 million, $130 million, and $540 million from wholesale, DTC self-operated, and DTC e-commerce channels, respectively [3] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for Q4 was 60.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the higher growth rate of the premium TUMI brand and effective discount control. The adjusted EBITDA margin reached 20.7%, a historical high, while the net profit margin was 12.2%, reflecting a year-on-year decline mainly due to a high base from previous impairment reversals [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $3.7 billion, $3.8 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.8%, 4.1%, and 3.5%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be $370 million, $410 million, and $460 million for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 6.2%, 10.8%, and 12.8%. The price-to-earnings ratio is estimated to be 10, 9, and 8 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company has a solid position as the world's largest luggage brand, with TUMI's store openings gradually realizing potential, and long-term growth prospects in the Asia-Pacific region [7]. - The company is expected to see a net profit of $382 million in 2025 and $413 million in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (PE) valuation range of 14-15X for 2025, translating to a fair value range of HKD 28.60-30.65 per share [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of $3.682 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 27.9%. However, a slight decline of 2.5% is expected in 2024, with revenues projected at $3.589 billion [6]. - The net profit for 2023 was $417 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.4%, but a decrease of 17.1% is anticipated for 2024, bringing the net profit down to $346 million [6]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 59.3%, which is expected to improve to 60.0% in 2024 and remain stable in the following years [6]. - The company maintained a net debt level that is historically low, with a net leverage ratio of 1.58x [7]. Regional Performance Insights - In Q4 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 0.1% year-on-year to $940 million, but the gross margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 60.2% [7]. - Revenue growth varied by region, with North America showing the most significant improvement at 11.7%, while Asia (excluding India) saw a decline of 1.6% [7]. - For Q1 2025, overall revenue is expected to decline in the mid to low single digits, with India projected to return to positive growth [7]. Store Expansion and Cash Flow - The company expanded its store count by 6.4% in 2024, with a net addition of 67 stores, primarily in Asia and Europe [7]. - Adjusted free cash flow increased by 9.3% to $310 million, with a total dividend and buyback amounting to $150 million and $160 million, respectively [7].

Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the company reported a net sales of $3,588.6 million, a decrease of 2.5% compared to $3,682.4 million in 2023[12]. - Gross profit for the same period was $2,152.2 million, down 1.4% from $2,182.8 million in the previous year, resulting in a gross margin of 60.0%[12]. - Operating profit decreased by 15.4% to $629.3 million from $743.7 million in 2023[12]. - Net profit for the year was $372.6 million, reflecting a decline of 13.4% compared to $430.3 million in 2023[12]. - Earnings attributable to equity holders were $345.6 million, down 12.9% from $396.9 million in the prior year[12]. - Adjusted net income was $369.8 million, a decrease of 5.8% from $392.4 million in 2023[12]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the year was $683.0 million, down 3.7% from $709.3 million in the previous year[12]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin was 19.0%, slightly lower than 19.3% in 2023[12]. - Basic earnings per share decreased by 13.0% to $0.239 from $0.275 in the prior year[12]. - Diluted earnings per share also fell by 13.1% to $0.237 compared to $0.273 in 2023[12]. Market Trends and Strategies - The company expects net sales growth at constant currency rates for Q1 and the full year of 2025, alongside strong profit margin maintenance[5]. - The company aims to expand its product portfolio and market coverage, including non-travel categories[5]. - The company is focusing on increasing sales in mature markets and deeper penetration in emerging markets with higher growth potential[5]. - The company reported a strong performance in its direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, including the successful expansion of self-operated retail stores and e-commerce platforms[5]. - The company emphasizes its commitment to innovation in design and sustainability, aiming to differentiate its products[5]. - The company is actively managing its channel mix and executing a multi-channel strategy[5]. - The company is focused on maintaining its brand strength and attractiveness in the market[5]. - The company is aware of the potential impacts of travel industry trends, particularly in air travel, on its business[5]. - The company expects steady growth in the global travel and tourism industry in 2025, supporting consumer demand for its products[22]. Consumer Behavior and Market Challenges - The company experienced a decline in consumer sentiment in key markets, impacting discretionary spending on high-end and luxury brands, alongside reduced retail customer traffic[14]. - Competitive pressures, particularly from increased discounting by rivals in various markets, notably India, affected the company's performance[14]. - Strong global travel and tourism trends helped mitigate the macroeconomic challenges faced during the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024[14]. - The fiscal year 2023 saw sales driven by post-pandemic recovery in Asia, particularly after China lifted restrictions, and increased sales to wholesale customers in North America[14]. Financial Management and Cost Control - The company is committed to managing raw material supply and costs effectively[5]. - Marketing expenses decreased by $14.5 million or 6.0% to $227.0 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, with marketing expenses as a percentage of net sales declining by 30 basis points to 6.3%[15]. - General and administrative expenses are expected to decrease by $19.6 million or 7.8% from $250.2 million in 2023 to $230.7 million in 2024, with the percentage of these expenses to net sales dropping from 6.8% in 2023 to 6.4% in 2024[19]. - The company aims to maintain strong profit margins through strict expense management and leveraging high-margin brands and channels[37]. Shareholder Returns and Capital Management - The company repurchased 62,610,300 shares for a cash outflow of $157.6 million as part of its share repurchase program[15]. - The board recommends a dividend distribution of $150.0 million for 2025, with a payout ratio of 43.4%, compared to a payout ratio of 37.8% for the $150.0 million distribution in 2024[21]. - The company distributed $150.0 million to equity holders during the year, reflecting ongoing shareholder returns despite the decline in net profit[61]. - Dividends paid to non-controlling interests were $19.7 million in 2024, compared to $12.6 million in 2023, indicating an increase of approximately 56.7%[198]. Operational Performance - The company plans to expand its global retail store network from 1,052 stores as of December 31, 2023, to 1,119 stores by December 31, 2024, resulting in a distribution expense increase of $34.5 million or 3.4% to $1,062.1 million for 2024[19]. - The DTC sales net increased by 2.7% year-over-year, contributing 39.8% to total net sales, up from 38.9% in the previous year[18]. - The company opened 67 new retail stores in 2024, maintaining the same growth rate as in 2023, bringing the total to 1,119 stores[30]. Sustainability and Corporate Responsibility - The company increased the proportion of products made from recycled materials in its net sales to approximately 40% in 2024, up from 34% in 2023 and 23% in 2022, reflecting the growing importance of sustainability as a consumer purchasing driver[35]. - The company’s environmental, social, and governance rating was upgraded from "A" to "AA" by MSCI, and it ranked 40th in Time magazine's "World's Best Companies in Sustainable Growth 2025" list[35]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a mid-single-digit decline in net sales for Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, due to macroeconomic uncertainties affecting consumer sentiment[36]. - The company plans to continue investing in marketing to upgrade the TUMI brand, celebrating its 50th anniversary with new product launches and marketing initiatives[36].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Samsonite (1910.HK) [5] Core Views - Samsonite is the world's largest luggage company with a strong recovery post-pandemic, and it is expected to benefit from the overall recovery of the travel industry and macroeconomic improvements [5][3] - The company is focusing on multi-brand and multi-regional development, with significant growth potential in various markets [4][5] Company Overview - Samsonite was founded in 1910 and has grown to become the largest travel luggage company globally, with brands including Samsonite, Tumi, and American Tourister [10][11] - The company has seen revenue growth from $1.6 billion in 2011 to $3.6 billion in 2019, with a CAGR of approximately 11% [1][17] - In 2023, the company's revenue reached $3.7 billion, recovering to pre-pandemic levels, with profits hitting a historical high [17] Business Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 3% year-on-year, primarily due to weaker performance in the Chinese market and increased price competition in India [2][31] - The adjusted net profit for the same period decreased by 8.4% year-on-year, but the profit margin remains significantly better than pre-pandemic levels [2][41] Industry Logic - The global travel industry is expected to fully recover by the end of 2024, which will drive luggage consumption [3] - The global luggage market is projected to reach $160.4 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5% from 2024 to 2029 [3] - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top five luggage companies holding a market share of 30% in 2024 [3] Company Strategy - Short-term improvements are anticipated due to stimulus policies in China and promotional activities [4] - Long-term growth drivers include category expansion and regional penetration, with a focus on increasing the share of non-travel categories [4][5] - The company is also planning a dual listing outside of Hong Kong to improve stock liquidity [5] Financial Forecast - The adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be $372 million, $407 million, and $428 million, respectively [6] - The adjusted EPS for the same period is expected to be $0.25, $0.28, and $0.29, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12x, 11x, and 10x, significantly lower than the average of comparable companies [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - UBS report indicates that Samsonite's stock price fell approximately 16% in 2023 primarily due to declining profits [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The decline in stock price is attributed to a decrease in profits [1] - However, unfavorable factors affecting revenue in 2024 are expected to lessen, potentially improving business travel demand and driving profit recovery [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - A potential secondary listing in the U.S. could expand the shareholder base and facilitate a revaluation [1] - Since 2018, Samsonite has restructured its supply chain, with limited impact from Trump's tariff policies [1] Group 3: Target Price and Rating - UBS raised the target price from HKD 28 to HKD 29.8 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to perform in line with the market over the next six months [174]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in the luggage industry, benefiting from the recovery of international tourism. It holds an 18% market share in the global luggage market and has shown a strong rebound in revenue post-pandemic, with a CAGR of 33.7% from 2020 to 2023 [4][5]. - The Asian market has surpassed North America in revenue contribution, with a significant growth rate of 55.8% in 2023, driven primarily by China, which saw a 78.7% increase [4][5]. - The company's core brands, including Samsonite, Tumi, and American Tourister, have all achieved double-digit growth, with Tumi leading at a 34.3% increase [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 1910, is the largest luggage manufacturer globally, with a diverse brand portfolio that includes high-end and mid-range products [14][135]. - The company has undergone significant growth phases, including globalization and acquisitions, which have expanded its brand and product offerings [20][21][22]. Market Conditions - The global travel market is recovering, with key indicators like RPK and ASK returning to pre-pandemic levels, indicating a resurgence in travel demand [5][81]. - The luggage market is projected to grow, with an expected CAGR of 6.5% from 2021 to 2027, and the suitcase segment is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 12% [5][99]. Growth Drivers - Domestic tourism in China has rebounded significantly, with a 93% increase in travel volume in 2023 compared to the previous year, contributing to the company's growth [7][143]. - The company is expanding its product range and innovating to attract younger consumers, with a focus on multi-functional travel products [7][156]. - Marketing strategies include celebrity endorsements and cross-brand collaborations, enhancing brand visibility and consumer engagement [8][169]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue reached $3.68 billion in 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, with a notable recovery in profitability [36][63]. - The gross profit margin has improved, reaching 60% in the first half of 2024, reflecting strong operational efficiency [64][70]. Regional Performance - In 2023, the Asian market accounted for 38.8% of total revenue, overtaking North America, which dropped to 34% [41][42]. - China remains a critical market, contributing significantly to revenue growth, with a 79% increase in 2023 [45][151]. Brand Performance - Core brands have shown robust growth, with Samsonite generating $1.85 billion and Tumi achieving a 34.4% increase in revenue [49][50]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand portfolio to cater to diverse consumer needs across different price segments [135][138].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is expected to see a rebound in Q4 due to low base effects and the holiday season, despite facing pressure in North America and Asia-Pacific in Q3 [7] - The company anticipates flat revenue growth for 2024, with a positive outlook for 2025 [8] - The resilience of the Samsonite brand is noted, while TUMI is impacted by weak high-end consumer spending [9] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, revenue decreased by 8.3% year-on-year to $880 million, with a gross margin of 59.3%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The adjusted EBITDA margin fell by 2.7 percentage points to 17.6% compared to the previous year [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 39.1% to $70 million, with a net profit margin of 7.5% [7] - The company added 83 stores year-on-year, with fixed SG&A expenses increasing by 0.4% [7] Regional Performance - Q3 2024 revenue by region showed declines: Asia (-12.2%), North America (-7.9%), Europe (-2.3%), and Latin America (-8.3%) [5] - The revenue decline in Asia was attributed to high base effects from the previous year and weak consumer demand, particularly in China and India [5] - North America faced challenges due to weak retail traffic and high-end consumer spending, with TUMI's revenue down 14.2% [5] - Latin America showed strong growth in local currency terms, with a revenue increase of 13.7% [5] Brand Performance - Revenue changes for Q3 2024 compared to the previous year: Samsonite (-3.9%), TUMI (-9.5%), and American Tourister (-17%) [9] - TUMI's revenue was significantly affected by weak high-end consumer spending in North America and Asia [9] - All brands experienced growth in Latin America, with revenue increases of 19.4% for Samsonite, 27.4% for TUMI, and 6.6% for American Tourister [9] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of $343 million and $375 million for 2024 and 2025, respectively [9] - The report assigns a PE valuation range of 14-15X for 2024, translating to a fair value range of HKD 25.72-27.56 per share [9]