机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：盛开 本报告导读： 25Q1 业绩因宏观不确定性承压，Q2 预计收入降中单位数、利润率环比持平。印度收入增速转正， TUMI欧洲及中国逆势高增。 投资要点： 盈利预测与估 值：我们认为公司①全球第一大箱包龙头地位稳固、②TUMI 开店逐步兑现，亚太增长 中长期具潜力、③债务杠杆与现金流产出持续向好，④海外双重上市有利估值修复。预计2025/26 净利 润2.54/2.89 亿美元，给予2025 年PE 估值15X，按1 美元=7.8 港元汇率换算，对应价格20.29 港元/股， 维持"增持"评级。 25Q1 业绩承压，Q2 预计收入降中单位数、利润率环比持平。25Q1收入同比下降7.3%至8.0 亿美元，汇 率中性下降4.5%，毛利率降1pct 至59.4%，SG&A 费用规模同比持平，费率因经营逆杠杆下降3pct 至 39.9%，调整EBITDA margin 降2.8pct 至16%，归母净利润降42.6%至0.5 亿美元，净利率降3.7pct 至 6.1%。自营门店/电商/经销收入同比变动-2.6%/-0.1%/-6.1%，自营门店同店下降7.2%，宏观不确定性下 经销商谨慎 ...

正 | | | | 52 周内股价区间（港元） | 13.12-26.70 | | --- | --- | | 当前股本（百万股） | 1,462 | | 当前市值（百万港元） | 21,204 | | | | 登记编号 S0880525040044 本报告导读： 25Q1 业绩因宏观不确定性承压，Q2 预计收入降中单位数、利润率环比持平。印度 收入增速转正，TUMI 欧洲及中国逆势高增。 投资要点： -27% -15% -4% 19% 30% 股票研究/[Table_Date] 2025.05.22 新秀丽(1910) [Table_Industry] 纺织服装业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [当前价格 | | --- | | Table_CurPrice] (港元)： 14.50 | [Table_Market] 交易数据 公 7% 2024/5 2024/6 2024/7 2024/8 2024/9 2024/10 2024/11 2024/12 2025/1 2025/2 2025/3 2025/4 52周内股价走势图 裕元集团 恒生指数 券 研 究 报 告 风险提示：零售环境疲软 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, primarily due to weakened demand in Asia and North America [1] - Adjusted EBITDA profit was $130 million, down 20.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was $48.2 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure under negative operating leverage [1] - The company anticipates revenues of $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of $300 million, $347.8 million, and $397.2 million, reflecting a temporary performance pressure due to tariff policies and macroeconomic fluctuations [5] Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from Asia was $310 million, down 9.7% year-on-year, while North America generated $260 million, down 8.3% year-on-year. Europe, however, showed resilience with revenue of $180 million, flat year-on-year, and a 4.4% increase in fixed exchange rates [2] - The Indian market benefited from strategic adjustments, showing a fixed exchange rate revenue increase of 2.6%, while South Korea and China faced declines due to overall demand weakness [2] Brand Performance - Revenue by brand in Q1 2025 was $410 million for Samsonite, $190 million for TUMI, and $130 million for American Tourister, with TUMI showing relative resilience with a year-on-year decline of only 3.7% [3] - The company opened 9 new stores, bringing the total to 1,128, demonstrating confidence in growth despite a weakening retail environment [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 59.4%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a lower proportion of high-margin sales from Asia [4] - The adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to rising expense ratios [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a P/E ratio of 9, 8, and 7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting the company's valuation amidst current market conditions [5] - The anticipated net profit for 2025 is $300 million, representing a 13.1% decline from the previous year, but expected to recover with a 15.8% increase in 2026 [11]

25Q1 业绩短期承压，静待需求修复 ——新秀丽点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 公司发布 25 年一季报，25Q1 实现营业收入 36 亿美元，同比-7.3%，固定汇率下 同比-4.5%，主要系亚洲和北美需求表现走弱，经调整 ebitda 利润 1.3 亿美元，同 比-20.8%，归母净利润 4820 万美元，同比-41.9%，负向经营杠杆下利润承压。 ❑ 北美和亚洲需求疲软致收入承压，欧洲逆势稳健增长 25Q1 分地区来看，亚洲实现收入 3.1 亿美元，同比-9.7%，固定汇率下-7.0%，其 中，印度市场受益于策略调整收入固定汇率下+2.6%，但受整体需求疲软拖累韩 国和中国收入有所下滑。 北美洲实现收入 2.6 亿美元，同比-8.3%，剔除批发商 24Q4 提前拿货影响同比- 5.2%，特朗普关税政策影响美国终端消费者信心致收入承压。 欧洲实现收入 1.8 亿美元，同比持平，固定汇率下+4.4%，品牌于欧洲渗透率持 续向上，带动收入逆势稳健增长，固定汇率下新秀丽、TUMI、美旅收入分别同 比+1.2%、+11.1%、+11.2%，；拉丁美洲收入 0.5 亿美元，同比-10.3%，固定汇率 下持平。 ❑ TUMI ...

旅行箱公司的全球龙头新秀丽（01910），看上去想要重拾业绩升势并不容易。 | (以百萬美元呈列,每股數據除外) | 2025 | | --- | --- | | 銷售淨額(1) | 796. | | 毛利 | 473. | | 毛利率 | 59. | | 經營溢利 | 109. | | 胡市兴利(6) | 55 | 回溯历史，自2011年在港股上市之后，新秀丽通过一系列的外延并购等操作，不断做大规模。分水岭出现在2019及20年，受疫情干扰，彼时新秀丽的业绩升 势被迫中断。不过此后随着旅游业恢复，至23年公司营收已超过19年水平。 然而，就当资本市场重新拾起对这家龙头企业的信心之际，新秀丽却接连交出了核心数据负增长的财务报告。尤其是日前披露的一季报，更为其本就羸弱的 股价走势再送上一击：5月14日，新秀丽大幅低开，截至收盘，该股报14.06港元，当天最终跌幅达到了8.58%。次日，新秀丽股价延续弱势，全体在"水 下"震荡，截至收盘报13.96港元，跌幅为0.71%。 对于目前正持续推进于美国股市双重上市的新秀丽来说，仍未摆脱波动的业绩是否会影响公司的既定计划，需要留待时间观察。同时，身为全球龙头的新秀 丽后 ...

Group 1 - Samsonite's Q1 sales revenue decreased by 7.3% year-on-year, amounting to $797 million compared to $860 million in the same period of 2024 [1] - The gross profit was $473 million with a gross margin of 59.4%, down from 60.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in sales from the higher-margin Asian market [1] - The decline in consumer confidence in the North American market and changes in wholesale channels also negatively impacted performance, despite some brand growth in the European market [1] Group 2 - Uniqlo is set to open its first city flagship store in Southwest China on May 16, covering nearly 2,000 square meters and featuring exclusive Chengdu-themed products [2] - This expansion reflects Uniqlo's continued optimism in the Chinese market and aims to enhance its brand influence in the Southwest region [2] - The opening of new stores is expected to intensify competition in the local apparel retail market, prompting other brands to improve their product and service quality [2] Group 3 - iQIYI has launched a revenue-sharing cooperation model for new theatrical films starting May 13, allowing films to be released on its platform within 90 days of their theatrical debut [3] - This model provides more monetization options for theatrical films, particularly benefiting mid-tier and lower-tier films, and is expected to encourage more creators to engage in film production [3] - The introduction of the revenue-sharing model is anticipated to enhance content quality and audience feedback, thereby increasing the market competitiveness of films [3] Group 4 - Tianyuan Pet announced plans to acquire 89.71% of Guangzhou Taotong Technology through a combination of share issuance and cash payment [4] - The acquisition is expected to enhance Tianyuan Pet's business scope and overall competitiveness, opening new pathways for performance growth [4] - The integration of the pet industry with e-commerce and marketing is likely to deepen, and this acquisition may trigger a wave of industry consolidation [4]

Core Viewpoint - Samsonite, a leading luggage brand, is experiencing significant sales declines and a drop in stock price, raising concerns about its market position and brand perception among consumers [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Samsonite reported a sales revenue of nearly $800 million, a decrease of 7.3% compared to the same period in 2024, with net profit declining by over 40% [3]. - The stock price fell by nearly 10% on May 14, closing at HKD 14.060 per share, with a market capitalization dropping below HKD 20 billion [3]. Sales Channel Analysis - Sales through wholesale channels have decreased, while direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, including retail and e-commerce, also saw declines [5]. - The main brand Samsonite experienced a sales decline of 11.4% in Asia and 6.4% in North America, while TUMI and American Tourister brands also faced similar downturns in both regions [5]. Market Position and Competition - The luxury luggage market is witnessing a structural divide, with brands like Rimowa showing strong growth, contrasting with Samsonite's struggles [6]. - Rimowa, acquired by LVMH, has seen its sales increase nearly fourfold over the past five years, highlighting a successful high-end positioning strategy [6]. Brand Strategy and Consumer Perception - Samsonite's multi-brand strategy aims to cover various market segments, but this has led to challenges in maintaining brand value and customer experience [7]. - The emergence of lower-priced alternatives and "copycat" products has intensified competition, affecting Samsonite's brand perception among younger consumers [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Samsonite, but it indicates a challenging environment for revenue and profit performance [1][9]. Core Insights - In 1Q25, Samsonite's net sales decreased by 4.5% year-on-year to $797 million, primarily due to weak demand in North America and China, along with a high base from the previous year [2][9]. - The company aims to maintain gross margin levels despite a 100 basis points decline to 59.4% in 1Q25, attributed to changes in geographic sales mix [2][9]. - Adjusted EBITDA fell by 20.9% year-on-year, leading to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.8%, down 280 basis points [2][9]. - Adjusted net income decreased by 40.3% year-on-year, driven by lower EBITDA, increased depreciation, net interest expenses, and a higher effective tax rate [2][9]. - The company reported a negative adjusted free cash flow of $41 million in 1Q25, reversing from a positive position due to EBITDA decline and increased net working capital [2][9]. Regional Performance - Sales in Asia and North America were weak, with Asia's revenue down 7% and North America's down 8% [3][10]. - Europe showed strong growth with a 4.4% increase in net sales, supported by positive growth across all core brands [3][10]. - Latin America’s sales remained flat, with a notable decline in Mexico offset by strong growth in Chile [3][10]. Channel Performance - The Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channel accounted for 38.2% of revenue in 1Q25, with e-commerce contributing 10.6% and offline retail 27.5% [4][11]. - The offline retail business saw a decline of 2.6%, primarily due to reduced customer traffic, while wholesale business declined by 6.1% [4][11]. Tariff Policy and Mitigation Strategies - The U.S. tariff policy remains unclear, causing caution among consumers and wholesale customers [5][12]. - The company has reduced its sourcing from China to 14% and plans to further decrease this by year-end, employing various strategies to mitigate potential tariff impacts [5][12]. Future Guidance - Management expects 2Q25 net sales growth to be similar to 1Q25, with a mid-single-digit decline in net revenue on a constant currency basis [6][13]. - Long-term growth is anticipated to be supported by strong travel trends, despite short-term macroeconomic uncertainties affecting consumer demand [6][13].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 14 May 2025 新秀丽 Samsonite (1910 HK) 1Q25 收入和利润表现均承压，2Q25 净收入指引下跌中单位数 1Q25 Revenue and Profit Performance Under Pressure, 2Q25 Net Revenue Guidance Down Mid-Single Digits 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou yy.kou@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：2025 年 5 月 13 日，新秀丽发布 1Q25 业绩。 新秀丽 1Q25 收入和利润表现均承压。新秀丽 1Q25 净销售额为 7.97 亿美元，同比下降 4.5%，主要因为北美和中国 需求疲软和去年高基数所致。公司致力于在相对挑战的环境下维持毛利率水平，1Q25 毛利率下滑 100bps 为 59.4%， 主要由于地域销售组合的变化（利润率 ...

瑞银升新秀丽目标价至16.3港元 首季利润率逊预期 金十数据5月14日讯，瑞银发表报告，指新秀丽(01910.HK)首季利润率逊预期，经调整EBITDA录1.28亿 美元，逊该行预期达16%，主因利润率低于预期。该行轻微上调对新秀丽收入预测1%，以反映次季北 美销售趋势指引好过预期；但降经调整EBITDA利润率预测约110点子，因首季经营去杠杆比原先预期 更明显。该行相应降2025至2027年各年每股预测分别8%、2%及2%。但由于加权平均资金成本预测由原 先9.9%降至9.5%，目标价由原先15港元升9%至16.3港元，评级"中性"，因现价已反映盈利可见度低。 报告补充，其强劲自由现金流生成或可为新一轮股份回购铺路，该行认为可支撑估值。 ...